2026 Spring Festival Baijiu "Ice and Fire": Feitian Maotai rises 200 yuan in half a month, while Yuanxijiu "plunges" in value. Liquor merchants cancel orders overnight to cut losses.

“Today, canned shipments are on duty, so those in need of alcohol should act quickly.” “If you need alcohol, contact us in advance. Logistics are gradually shutting down, and courier prices will also increase.” With only a week left until the Spring Festival, multiple alcohol merchants are intensively posting similar reminders on social media, rushing to the last sales peak before the holiday.

In the evening, at Bairong Mall, the largest wholesale market for white liquor in the country, wholesaler Lin Zhiyuan is wrapping black film around goods that are about to be shipped out of town. He told the Times Weekly reporter, overall, this Spring Festival hasn’t been particularly busy for Bairong. “This year, traffic jams aren’t severe. Compared to previous years, where jams could last for hours, this year it’s just a brief delay.”

Feedback from frontline markets shows that top-tier sauce-flavored liquor has experienced an unprecedented “ice and fire” situation during this Spring Festival. On one hand, Moutai Feitian at 1499 yuan has triggered “massive” demand, with retail prices rising by 200 yuan within half a month, frequently sold out online and offline, with some distributors’ quotas for March already consumed early; on the other hand, the 100-yuan daily liquor, Xijiu, suddenly collapsed, with single boxes dropping dozens of yuan overnight, leading some liquor merchants to cancel orders overnight even at the cost of losing deposits.

Meanwhile, platforms like Meituan Flash Purchase are deeply penetrating the instant retail market, using price advantages to carve out a share from traditional tobacco and liquor stores. Between maintaining profits, shipping, and withdrawal, liquor merchants are no longer betting on market trends but are shifting towards a survival strategy that emphasizes “cash is king.”

Feitian Moutai’s price has increased by 200 yuan in half a month, while Xijiu “dropped”

As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall white liquor market has entered a price upward channel. After the price of Feitian Moutai returned to rationality, it released stronger sales momentum, with a particularly noticeable rise.

“Recently, Moutai sales have been quite good. The store ships about 3 to 5 boxes daily,” a liquor merchant in Shanghai told the Times Weekly reporter on February 6. The shipping price of Feitian Moutai has increased by about 200 yuan in the past two weeks, with retail prices reaching 1850 yuan. Some merchants directly said that pre-holiday demand for Moutai is “massive,” with prices rising by 160 yuan in just two days, requiring several days to update price tags.

In a tight supply and demand environment, some distributors’ quotas have also been quickly exhausted. According to the reporter, some Moutai distributors sold out their Feitian quotas for January and February, and even the small 1×4 boxes for March were consumed early.

Unlike previous years when Feitian Moutai prices exceeded 2000 yuan before the Spring Festival, this year Guizhou Moutai is fully promoting market-oriented transformation. The price of Feitian follows market trends, with its own platform, iMoutai, continuously offering Feitian at 1499 yuan. Before the holiday, mainstream offline transaction prices ranged from 1699 to 1999 yuan. Analysts say this price range enhances the circulation efficiency of Feitian Moutai.

This scarcity is also reflected in terminal visits.

On February 6, at a CR Vanguard store in Guangzhou, the 25-year-old Feitian Moutai at 1699 yuan per bottle was sold out, with only older vintages from 2015 and earlier remaining. The clerk told the reporter that on January 28, they received 100 bottles of Feitian Moutai, “some customers bought several bottles at a time, and they sold out in a few days.” Later, a small replenishment was made, which also sold out quickly.

At a Yongwang Supermarket in Guangzhou, the offline price of the 25-year-old Feitian Moutai was 1999 yuan per bottle, but the Meituan Flash Purchase price was as low as 1699 yuan. The clerk reminded customers that each person is limited to two bottles, and stock is limited. The reporter noticed on the Meituan Flash platform that at noon on February 6, the store had 4 bottles of Feitian Moutai in stock, but by 3:30 pm the same day, it was sold out.

On the Meituan Flash platform, the Yongwang Supermarket’s Feitian Moutai page.

In stark contrast to Feitian Moutai, some sub-premium and regional products experienced a significant decline before the Spring Festival.

Lin Zhiyuan, a liquor merchant at Bairong, told the reporter that the price of Yuan Xijiu has recently dropped sharply, with nearly 100 yuan off per box. He initially planned to buy at 460 yuan per box but almost suffered a loss of tens of thousands of yuan.

Generally, a sharp drop in white liquor prices is directly attributed to a sudden increase in market volume. According to Lin Zhiyuan, the distillery suddenly released several tens of thousands of boxes. “At that time, there was stock at 410 yuan, which I thought was a fair price. I inquired with distributors, and I heard the bottom price could reach around 380 yuan, so I didn’t dare to buy. Unexpectedly, the next day it collapsed, and the price was over 380 yuan when sold.”

Lin Zhiyuan also said that some peers canceled orders after losing deposits. “This kind of liquor usually involves 300 to 500 boxes, with deposits only a few thousand yuan. If I buy, I’d lose at least 70 yuan per box, totaling several tens of thousands in losses.”

Supermarkets’ “Meituan prices” are cheaper than liquor stores, and merchants are becoming more conservative

Compared to last year’s Spring Festival, another notable change this year in the white liquor market is in channels and business mindset.

Last year before the Spring Festival, many leading liquor companies stabilized prices by halting shipments and controlling volume. This year, up to now, no such notices have been issued. Instead, supermarkets have continued promotional activities, and prices have further declined under the support of instant retail platforms.

The reporter found that, after integrating with Meituan Flash Purchase, many well-known liquors in large supermarkets’ traditional pricing strongholds are now offered at the lowest market prices.

At the aforementioned CR Vanguard store, Wuliangye eighth-generation (Puwu) on Meituan Flash Purchase is priced at 790 yuan per bottle, 7% lower than the 850 yuan at local liquor stores in Guangzhou, about 12% lower than the store’s promotional price of 899 yuan and the Tmall official flagship store at 900 yuan; the large single product of Jiupin on Meituan is priced at 672 yuan, compared to the store’s promotional price of 749 yuan, and 17% cheaper than Tmall’s 810 yuan.

“Last year, white liquor sales were not very good. We adjusted all prices, and now they are close to or even lower than private liquor stores outside,” a CR Vanguard clerk said frankly, also reminding customers that ordering on the platform is cheaper.

Similar situations are seen at the Yongwang Supermarket. The price tags for nine popular liquors, including Feitian Moutai, Moutai 1935, Puwu, and Jiupin, are prominently displayed on the shelves. For example, the price of Feitian Moutai in Guangzhou on February 7 was about 1750 yuan per bottle at liquor stores, while the store’s offline price was 1999 yuan, and the Meituan Flash Purchase price was 1699 yuan, showing a clear price advantage. This has significantly increased sales, and the stock of Feitian Moutai on Meituan was sold out within a few hours.

Yongwang Supermarket’s liquor display. Photo by Times Weekly reporter.

This “online order, in-store delivery” model allows supermarkets with genuine products and stable sources to become highly competitive super terminals, diverting some sales from traditional liquor stores that rely on regular customers and group buying.

“A lot of retail customers are being impacted by online channels, which divert scattered orders of mid- and low-end liquors. Normally, this profit could cover labor and utility costs for several people, easing the pressure,” a liquor merchant admitted. However, he also pointed out that core group-buying customer resources have not yet been shaken.

After two years of industry deep adjustment, liquor merchants are also becoming more conservative about the Spring Festival market.

A liquor store owner said that in the past, they would stock at least 50 cases for the Spring Festival, but this year they only prepare three to five boxes, and if not enough, they ask peers to transfer stock, refusing to hold excess inventory.

Lin Zhiyuan said that recent shipments are mostly small orders of 3 or 5 boxes. Compared to well-known brands with transparent prices, he prefers to sell third- and fourth-tier brands with more stable prices. “Although sales are average on normal days, they sell more during festivals.”

From traditional shelf battles to the accelerated penetration of instant retail, the white liquor business is increasingly testing resolve. In the current market environment, most liquor merchants believe that price stability is more important than short-term profits.

Busy packing shipments, Lin Zhiyuan said, “Just counting on these days.” This not only refers to a year’s harvest but also hopes that, amid the structural reshuffle, the festive atmosphere can help him stay in the game this year.

(At the request of the interviewee, Lin Zhiyuan is a pseudonym)

(Source: Times Weekly)