Corn Drawing Pressures Inventory as Futures Rally on Export Anticipation

DeFiCaffeinator · 2026-02-08T04:13:12+00:00

The corn market is strong, with futures rising due to wheat support and a weaker dollar. Inventory levels dropped, and ethanol production declined, highlighting demand pressures. Upcoming export sales data will likely influence future trading dynamics.

DeFiCaffeinator

2026-02-08 04:13:12

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The corn market demonstrated solid strength early this week, with futures climbing 1 to 3 cents across Thursday morning sessions. The rally gained momentum from spillover support in wheat futures combined with renewed softness in the US dollar index, creating a favorable environment for commodity prices. Open interest expanded by 20,796 contracts, signaling fresh buying participation entering the market. The CmdtyView national Cash Corn price registered gains of 3 3/4 cents, settling at $3.94 1/2, reflecting broader bullish sentiment across the sector.

Inventory Drawdown and Ethanol Dynamics

Recent EIA data highlighted a meaningful corn drawing pattern, with ethanol production slipping 5,000 barrels daily to reach 1.114 million bpd during the latest reporting week. The corn drawing effect extended to inventory levels, where stocks experienced a significant drawdown of 339,000 barrels, settling at 25.4 million barrels. This inventory contraction reflects sustained demand pressures despite seasonal factors. Export activity declined by 61,000 bpd to 157,000 bpd, while refiner ethanol inputs surged 31,000 bpd to 883,000 bpd, demonstrating how industrial demand continues to support corn utilization across multiple processing channels.

Price Action Across Futures Contracts

The nearby cash contract held strong at $3.94 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents for the session. March 26 Corn futures closed at $4.30, posting a 3 1/2 cent gain. May 26 Corn advanced 3 1/4 cents to settle at $4.38, while Jul 26 Corn gained 3 1/4 cents to close at $4.44. This broad-based strength across the contract calendar underscores consistent buying pressure throughout the forward curve, with strength persisting into early trading sessions.

Export Sales Expected to Guide Further Trading

The upcoming Export Sales release on Thursday will provide crucial direction for corn trading activity. Market participants are positioning for 2025/26 corn bookings to register between 1 and 2.5 million metric tons during the reporting week, while 2026/27 sales are projected to remain modest between zero and 200,000 MT. These export expectations, combined with the recent corn drawing patterns and sustained ethanol demand, suggest the market remains supported by genuine supply tightness and industrial demand dynamics rather than speculative positioning alone.

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