📉 SOLANA'S UPHILL BATTLE: CAN SOL RECLAIM $100 AS LONG-TERM HOLDER CONVICTION WAVERS?

Solana (SOL) is attempting a high-stakes recovery after a volatile week, bouncing 12% to trade near $88 as of February 7, 2026. While aggressive dip-buying has successfully prevented a deeper collapse toward the $67 support zone, on-chain data reveals a growing challenge: the HODLer Net Position Change is declining, signaling that long-term investors are slowing their accumulation. With the Money Flow Index (MFI) hitting rare oversold levels seen only three times in the last 30 months, the technical stage is set for a relief rally. However, for Solana to confirm a true trend reversal, it must overcome the $90 hurdle and decisively reclaim the $100 psychological barrier to restore institutional and retail confidence.

The Conviction Gap: Long-Term Holders Move to the Sidelines

The primary hurdle for Solana’s sustained recovery is the cooling sentiment among its most dedicated investor cohort.

• Slowing Accumulation: On-chain data indicates that long-term holder buying momentum has stalled. Historically, these participants provide the “supply floor” during market downturns. Their current hesitation suggests that the recent sharp pullback has shaken long-term conviction, leaving the price more vulnerable to short-term speculative swings.
• Sustainability Risk: Without the re-engagement of these “diamond hand” investors, short-term price bounces are at risk of fading quickly as they lack the deep demand absorption required to withstand secondary selling waves.

Oversold Signals: A Rare Opportunity for Stabilization

Despite the weakening holder conviction, technical indicators are flashing a significant “exhaustion” signal.

• MFI at a Critical Low: Solana’s Money Flow Index (MFI) is currently dipping toward the oversold threshold below 20.0. In the past two and a half years, SOL has reached this level only three times, with each instance preceding a notable price stabilization or reversal.
• Selling Saturation: Reaching these oversold extremes typically indicates that the most aggressive sellers have already exited, creating a “supply vacuum” that can allow even modest buying pressure to drive prices higher.

The Road to $110: Key Levels to Watch

Solana’s intraday bounce from its lows highlights active demand, but the technical path forward remains cluttered with resistance.

• The $100 Barrier: The immediate goal for bulls is a move above $90, followed by a high-volume reclaim of $100. Securing $100 as support is the critical “all-clear” signal needed to shift the narrative from a corrective phase to a recovery rally.
• The Recovery Target: If $100 is reclaimed, the path opens for a retest of the $110 zone as confidence returns to the ecosystem.
• The Downside Floor: Failure to reclaim the triple-digit mark could leave SOL range-bound or trigger a retreat toward $78. A drop below $78 would effectively invalidate the current bullish thesis and extend the corrective cycle.

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Solana (SOL) price predictions and on-chain metrics are based on market data as of February 7, 2026. On-chain signals like HODLer Net Position Change and technical indicators like the MFI are probabilistic and do not guarantee future performance. Solana remains a highly volatile asset; failing to hold key support levels or a continued lack of long-term holder accumulation could lead to significant capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in digital assets.

Do you think the oversold MFI is the ultimate “buy signal” for SOL, or will the lack of long-term holder support lead to a sub-$80 crash?