[Red Envelope] Pre-scripted moves + precise top and bottom escape, see how Old Cat captures the intraday highs and lows!

Trading is like playing chess; each move is a cultivation. The board is a silent battlefield, emotions are the hidden chess notation, and capital flow is the key to breaking the game. True winners do not greedily hold the endgame but make decisive moves at critical nodes to set the pattern. [Taogu Ba]
--------Old Cat Recites Poetry

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2026-2-6 Review

1. Market Review

【For those unfamiliar with the①②③ zones, please refer to the February 2nd post】

We previously explained the characteristics of the Shenzhen Component Index’s①②③ zones, and have repeatedly reminded everyone of the rhythm at key resistance and support levels. Although the market has been weak overall these days, if you grasp this rhythm well, you can still outperform most players. As we mentioned before, resistance in zones ① and ③ is relatively strong, while zone ② has less resistance. The market tends to oscillate mainly within zone ②. From recent performance, this trend aligns perfectly with our predictions, demonstrating the charm of chip analysis. But it’s also important to understand that as the oscillation in zone ② prolongs and trading volume accumulates, the resistance built up will also increase—whether as support or resistance—though currently, the strength is still far from zone ①. Zone ① remains a strong resistance area that requires significant volume to recover quickly. With only five trading days before the holiday, the probability of large volume surges ahead of the holiday is low; it’s more likely that funds will flow back gradually one or two days before the holiday (some taking early positions) or after the holiday. Therefore, the chance of recovering zone ① in the next two or three trading days is low. Once market liquidity begins to recover, a reversal condition may form.

However, as the strength of zone ② gradually accumulates without strong external forces (like the recent strong external influence from the US stock market), its subsequent performance will tend to be mild. That is, even if zone ① cannot be recovered, the oscillation in zone ② tomorrow will also be mild. Today’s multiple intraday attempts to attack the market were mostly driven by hot spots, and the overall market sentiment has increased somewhat. This is despite the US tech stocks falling after hours, indicating that even if US stocks continue to decline tonight, it’s within expectations. Tomorrow’s negative feedback on A-shares will likely show diminishing marginal effects. So, there’s no need to worry too much about a big drop caused by zone ① resistance tomorrow. Overall, a mild oscillation is expected. Currently, the index is right in the middle of zone ②, with limited room up or down, supporting a sideways trend.

Of course, these are objective analyses based on current intraday market performance. Future movements may still be influenced by news, and if there are significant changes, I will update everyone over the weekend.

2. Short-term Sentiment

In recent days, we have repeatedly said that since the sharp decline of precious metals ended, the relay sentiment has released a wave of risk. The subsequent days show a gradual recovery. Based on the performance of the next-day rebound after limit-ups, the situation of hot stocks holding positions at high levels, and the daily rebounds of top-tier stocks after breaking support, it’s evident. For example, yesterday’s Hang Electric, Mingdiao, and Julli Sog, which are more recognizable, all showed rebound patterns after breaking support. 20cm Tanaka Precision is similar. These are signs of a rebound from a correction, with increased fault tolerance. But currently, the short-term thematic sustainability is weak. Without sustained themes as carriers, funds can only continue to group into recognizable stocks, chase patterns, or trade independent logic—these are high-return but also high-risk operations, suitable only for experts. For most short-term traders, there is still a lack of clear right-side opportunities for relay buying. This will improve only when themes show sustained strength. So, for now, thematic speculation is a somewhat wasteful phase of sentiment—tempting but hard to find high-confidence entry points. Those not skilled at exploiting loopholes should continue to wait.

Today, I reminded many times that all hot spots are weak rebounds, lacking strong offensive attributes, and still in a oscillating pattern. The closing confirmed these judgments.

3. Sector Review

1. Chemical Concepts

Today’s chemical sector mainly moved based on a price increase logic. BASF announced an 11% price hike for TDI in Asia-Pacific, triggering sector gains. Currently, this appears to be a short-term news-driven response. The medium-term logic is unclear, so after the initial boost, the sustainability is uncertain. From today’s performance, it’s one of the few sectors with volume-driven upward moves, showing good initiative. There may be some continuation tomorrow, but generally, the chemical sector tends to favor trend-following rather than relay strategies. Trend-following is more suitable for left-side trading, while chasing on the right side has a lower cost-performance ratio. For short-term relay traders, it’s not an ideal sector. Left-side traders should wait for a healthy correction to find a good entry point, with tomorrow leaning towards weak intra-market funds leaving strong stocks behind.

2. Robotics Concept

The relatively strong intra-day sector, with many limit-ups, is driven by Elon Musk’s statement that the company will convert the production line at the Fremont factory in California, originally for Model S and Model X, into a dedicated facility for Optimus humanoid robots. This is also a short-term news stimulus. Lacking long-term growth expectations, the sector’s overall trend is plateauing. The index shows a sideways pattern with no significant volume increase. There is some initiative, but not much, and repeated fluctuations are likely. Expect no explosive growth in the near term; monitor for small upward moves, and if sustained volume increases occur, pay more attention. If tomorrow shows weakness, the short-term value is limited.

3. AI Applications

After the recent sharp decline caused by negative news, there have been attempts at partial recovery yesterday and today, but the strength is weak. These are mostly weak rebound moves, driven by the positive news of Qianwen’s money-spending mode. Overall, the rebound lacks sincerity. As previously mentioned, the main issue is the limited short-term window for AI during the Spring Festival, and whether the market will overshoot expectations or not after the holiday remains uncertain. So, the short-term rebound strength is limited, and further recovery may occur as time compresses, but reversing in the short term is quite difficult. During recovery, individual stocks perform randomly, with no sector-wide collective rebound, which tests stock-picking skills. Future battles in this sector will also be challenging.

4. Commercial Aerospace

On Tuesday, the sector showed a strong start, raising expectations of sustained breakout. However, over the next two days, negative impacts from AI applications and space photovoltaic declines caused a missed opportunity for continuous explosion. Expectations shifted to sideways movement. Today’s performance is normal consolidation, with sector differentiation rather than a broad rebound. The overall strength is moderate, indicating healthy oscillation rather than deterioration. No sustained breakout is yet in sight; a volume-driven bullish candle is needed to trigger further upward momentum. Until then, it’s better to play on the left side, engaging in early rebounds and avoiding chasing after unvolume-driven surges. Before a clear volume breakout, right-side trading is difficult to profit from excess premiums. From a medium- to long-term perspective, commercial aerospace still has strong industry logic and warrants continued attention, but with caution to avoid counterproductive trading. Today’s late performance saw Shenjian, Galaxy Electronics, and Julli Sog repeatedly attempt to hit limit-ups, but they failed to lift the back ranks, indicating limited confidence among funds. Further consolidation and accumulation are likely. Aerospace news remains frequent; weekend news may provide catalysts.

5. Glass and Fiberglass

Today’s sector showed weakness and oscillation, mainly influenced by the overall index pressure. It’s not yet broken, but future rhythm depends on the overall index outlook. This sector is sensitive to index movements; only when the index shows a rebound space can the odds improve.

Overall, the market remains in a weak oscillation phase, with poor thematic sustainability expectations. Pre-holiday trading is sluggish, making it difficult to support large-scale trends. Sentiment has improved somewhat, but sustained short-term opportunities depend on themes strengthening.

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