XRP's Feb-22 Echoes: Glassnode flags critical cost-basis warning

Glassnode’s latest on-chain analysis reveals XRP is replicating a market structure last observed in February 2022—a setup marked by diverging cost bases across investor cohorts that historically precedes significant selling pressure. The analytics firm warned that newer buyers are accumulating at price levels well below what mid-term holders paid, creating what Glassnode calls a “psychological pressure” dynamic where older buyers become increasingly underwater.

The parallel to Feb-22 matters because it reflects a specific behavioral pattern: when markets revisit these cost-basis misalignments, forced de-risking and capitulation often cluster around key psychological levels. With XRP currently trading at $1.41 (as of Feb 7, 2026), the structure mirrors conditions Glassnode highlighted when it compared the current tape to conditions that preceded volatility three years prior.

The cost-basis divergence: how Feb-22 mirrors today

Glassnode identified a critical shift in realized prices by investor age band—the key metric being that short-term holders (roughly 1-week to 1-month active) are stepping in at prices cheaper than what 6-month to 12-month holders paid. This inversion creates overhead liquidity, where supply becomes eager to exit at breakeven levels, capping upside potential.

The firm’s “Realized Price by Age” chart highlights the gap between these cohorts’ cost bases, with the most striking comparison being to February 2022, when XRP experienced a sharp round-trip: it touched roughly $0.60 on Feb 2, ripped to near $0.88 by Feb 8, then rolled over into the back half of the month as macroeconomic risk accelerated. By late February, geopolitical escalation (the Russia-Ukraine invasion on Feb 24) pushed all risk assets lower, leaving XRP around $0.70 before a brief bounce near $0.79 by month-end.

That same structure—younger cohorts undershooting older cohorts’s cost basis—preceded the late-month capitulation and contributed to the selling pressure that defined Feb-22’s second half.

The $2 psychological zone: where realized losses cluster

The $2 level has emerged as a critical psychological barrier for Ripple holders, particularly after early 2025 when XRP repeatedly tested this handle. Glassnode’s analysis showed that each retest of $2 coincided with $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses—a tangible metric of holder capitulation. Those figures signal that $2 is more than a chart level; it’s a behavior level, where spending patterns shift and forced de-risking accelerates.

This mirrors Feb-22 dynamics: when price revisits a cohort’s realized cost basis, that cohort often floods the market with sell volume to reduce losses, effectively creating a ceiling. The clustering of realized losses at specific price zones is what transforms a technical level into a psychological one—and what Glassnode uses to forecast sell-side clustering.

Why the Feb-22 comparison matters

The Feb-22 episode offers a cautionary playbook: cost-basis divergences don’t resolve through gradual grinding; they often resolve through either absorption of the underwater cohort or forced capitulation. Glassnode’s warning suggests XRP is primed for the latter scenario if macro conditions tighten or if sentiment shifts quickly.

At press time, XRP remains above the 100-week exponential moving average, but the cost-basis structure suggests that overhead resistance could be formidable near key psychological zones. The parallel to conditions three years prior—a period that saw explosive volatility triggered partly by macro shock—underscores why cohort analysis matters: it reveals where the market’s structural weak points lie, irrespective of news cycles or price predictions.