[Red Envelope] Valuable Insights: "Analysis of All Ultra-Short Modes"

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The Core of Ultra-Short Profits: Four Strategies to Capture “Expectation Gaps”

To seize opportunities in ultra-short trading, the essence is to grasp the “expectation gap” between market consensus and actual trends. Below are four core patterns to help you understand when to go against the trend.

1. Weak Turning to Strong: Consensus on Expectation Gap, From Divergence to Unity

First, identify what “weak” means:

1. Breaks: No limit-up at close, whether it’s a天地板, late-day plunge, or just one cent away from a limit-up.
2. Poor Limit: Unstable limit-up, repeatedly opening and closing, accompanied by huge volume.
3. Late-Day Limit: Struggling to hit limit-up within the last 30 minutes, with massive volume.
4. Late Surge: Large orders smashing through the limit-up at the end of the day.
5. High-Standard Break: Failure to re-close a high-limit or retreat after a surge.

Next, judge what “strong” means:
Strength versus weakness is based on the comparison between actual trend and normal expectations. Normal expectations are formed based on historical experience to predict the next day:

1. Limit-up before 10 AM yesterday → Expectation of a high open of 4%+ the next day
2. Limit-up in early trading yesterday → Expectation of a high open of 3%+ the next day
3. Limit-up in the afternoon yesterday → Expectation of -2% to +2% the next day
4. Flat limit (one-word limit) yesterday → Expectation of larger buy orders and smaller trading volume the next day

Core idea:
If it doesn’t fall when it should, consider it strong; if it doesn’t rise when it should, consider it weak.

【Stock Market Relativity】Distinguish True Weakness from Fake Weakness:

1. Active Weakness (True Weakness): Market and sectors are strong, individual stocks are weak.
2. Passive Weakness (Fake Weakness): Market and sectors are weak, individual stocks resist decline or attempt to rally.

Operational key:
During emotional rising periods or at the bottom, look for potential core stocks that are passively weak (fake weak). If there’s a surge with multiple times the bidding volume, opening quickly red with volume, it’s a sign of unexpected strength. The buy point is usually within a few minutes of opening, no need to wait for limit-up confirmation.

2. Anti-Core: Liquidity Focus After Panic Extremes

Anti-core is a rebound after emotional lows, a sign that panic selling has ended and funds are re-allocating to popular stocks.

Applicable conditions:

1. The target must have a solid logic, preferably being misjudged by the index or sentiment (initial big drop).
2. Sentiment stocks should be those that open with a one-word limit-up, with large chip gaps, facilitating full turnover at the floor.

Buy point location:
Usually within -5%, following the market’s large order surge. Pre-judging key points and setting alerts for large order buying anomalies is essential for quick response.

Summary:

1. Weak to Strong: Profiting from expectation gap consensus and divergence resolution.
2. Anti-Core: Profiting from liquidity reallocation after panic exhaustion.
     Both require contrarian trading—seeing the dawn of a reversal when others are fearful.

3. One-Word Direction: Price Discovery via Auction, Arbitrage for First Mover

Daily auction is crucial, especially monitoring whether core targets’ auction results meet expectations.

Basic logic:

Below expectations → Sell point
Above expectations → Buy point

Key observation points:
Compare yesterday and today’s 9:25 AM auction results, and check if there are additional orders after 9:20; also watch for negative feedback (limit-down orders and counts).

Special scenarios:

1. The day after a climax: One-word limit-up opening below expectations, often with inertia to push higher, which is a sell signal.
2. The day after a bottom: One-word limit-up opening below expectations, possibly with a downward move, which can be a buy signal (must consider nodes, logic, and tiering).

Arbitrage opportunities:
When a one-word order surge appears at the bottom, it indicates strong capital support at the limit. If you can’t buy core stocks, shift to arbitrage in related or similar logic stocks (e.g., same sector 10cm or 20cm stocks). The themes that start at the bottom often explode after sentiment warms up that day, with continued premium the next day.

4. 20cm and North Exchange Arbitrage: Riding the Leader’s Wind, Capturing Rebound Flexibility

Besides auction arbitrage, intraday opportunities also exist after the leader hits the limit-up.

Core logic:
After the 10cm core hits the limit-up, funds will explore 20cm or North Exchange stocks within the same sector for arbitrage, earning elastic gains driven by the leader.

Pay attention to rhythm:

1. 20cm arbitrage can exhaust the theme’s height. If a theme’s total rise is 100%, the 20cm stocks may top out after 3 limit-ups, while the 10cm leader might need 7. The time gap is about 3-4 days.
2. A second 20cm rebound often occurs, with about 50% gains, mainly in small-cap stocks.

Stock selection style, based on market environment:

1. Sufficient volume: Trend-capacity stocks favored, logic secondary.
2. Capital balance: Logic is scarce, funds follow solid logic.
3. Tight liquidity: Logic obeys capital, hot spots are driven by large funds’ recognition.
4. Low volume: Sentiment-driven grouping, focusing on妖股 (freak stocks),庄股 (big player stocks), or mainline recognizable targets.

Summary

Ultra-short trading patterns—weak to strong, anti-core, one-word direction, 20cm/North Exchange arbitrage—are fundamentally about playing the “expectation gap.”

1. Weak to Strong: Key is to identify true vs. false weakness, and seize the node of passive weakness turning strong.
2. Anti-Core: Focus on the revival of popularity after panic release, entering when liquidity returns.
3. One-Word Direction: Use auction surprises to judge buy/sell, extending to back-row arbitrage.
4. Arbitrage: Rely on leader-driven moves, selecting targets based on market volume and style.

Core consistency: Contradict human nature, grasp expectation gaps, and position before consensus forms.

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