[Red Envelope] After four consecutive weeks of weak market performance, can the final showdown before the Spring Festival next week turn the tide?

Part 1: Focus Points Within the Pattern

1. Blue Cursor: Focus on the low point at 1.19 opening, pattern has lasted until now for 15 days
2. Qianzhao Optoelectronics: Focus on the low point at 1.26, pattern has lasted until now for 10 days
3. Xinwei Communications: Focus on the low point this Monday, pattern has lasted until now for 5 days
4. Zhejiang Wenlian: Focus on the low point at 1.19, increased attention again underwater on 1.20, relatively heavy focus pattern reached a relatively high level for the first time this Wednesday, then decreased focus for the first time, and fully stopped following on Friday to take profits.

Summary: Zhejiang Wenlian had a significant wave of heavy attention from the 10th to this Friday, then fully stopped following to take profits. Although it’s a bit unfortunate that it didn’t further open up to a higher level, considering the recent difficult market conditions, it’s still quite satisfying compared to the widespread bearishness outside. The focus on Blue Cursor at the 1.19 low point also shows a proactive attitude towards the final outcome. The low point focus on Qianzhao and Xinwei, even if retraced, didn’t suffer much damage. Overall, compared to the recent super-weak market where silver and gold often get hit with continuous one-word suppression, it’s already quite satisfying.

Part 2: Market Analysis
Today’s index continued to open lower with divergence in the early session, then formed a double bottom and rebounded, but near the close, it surged again and fell back, sentiment remains very poor. Recently, everyone has noticed that since the week when the commercial aerospace cycle retreated, the market has been in a four-week period of weak, hellish difficulty. The market has entered a four-week cycle of no height, internal competition, and fan-like volatility. In terms of sectors, either continuous one-word limit-down suppression, such as the first week’s commercial aerospace, Hegang, Shenjian, etc., the second week’s AI applications, Lio, etc., the third week’s gold and silver sectors like Silver Nonferrous, Hunan Silver, etc. Or quant-driven rotation across various sectors and within sectors.

This week’s performance is very detailed. For example, on Monday, gold and silver storage, AI hardware, CPO, commercial aerospace, and AI applications all suffered collective suppression. Just when everyone thought the breakdown was hopeless, the quant sector on Tuesday reversed counterintuitively and recovered. Commercial aerospace and AI applications led the double main lines. On Wednesday, when everyone thought the reversal was happening, the market was again countered by quant, with double main lines in commercial aerospace and AI applications, then rotated to low-level space photovoltaics, AI hardware, CPO, power, etc. When everyone switched to contrarian space photovoltaics, CPO, and power on Wednesday, Thursday saw a direct counterattack in space photovoltaics, power, and hardware CPO. On Friday, when despair deepened, quant rotated again to boost power and some space photovoltaics, leaving some room for survival. This is the most annoying aspect of weak quant-driven markets: if you keep chasing highs and selling lows, you’ll be played around by quant strategies happily.

Another feature of the weak quant-driven rotation is the lack of a core sector that remains strong, with sectors rotating randomly. For example, within commercial aerospace, the first breakout was Western Materials, but then it switched to Julli Squeeze. Recently, strong sectors included Aerospace Development, Tongyu Communications, Qianzhao Optoelectronics, but in the past two days, the rotation shifted to Shenjian Shares.

Recently, the market has also been full of pitfalls, each different. This is due to the market sentiment cycle. During the main rise of commercial aerospace in December, it was necessary to actively attack and focus on the main dragon to build enough offensive power to withstand the cold, weak four-week retreat. During these four weeks, it was also important to stay relatively stable, with the initiative to attack or defend, to preserve the offensive power built in the previous main cycle. Over these four weeks, I avoided many suppression pits and focused on Blue Cursor and Zhejiang Wenlian, which moved against the trend. Compared horizontally, I am quite satisfied with this difficult market. Keep going and work harder.

The quantitative cycle-driven market interprets internal competition as counterintuitive and exquisite. It still lacks a high market. Instead of constantly chasing highs and lows in the quant-driven market, it’s better to focus on a few core sectors at low levels, wait for rotation, and then leave the rest to the market, allowing the weak to fall away and the strong to emerge.

Part 3: Style Charm
Let me talk about my style: big attack and defense, with cycles of varying sizes. My style is bold and open, encountering high-level large cycles like the previous Aerospace Development cycle, where I increased focus three times to a heavy focus level, lasting until the 32nd day without reducing attention once. As you can see, if it weren’t for my bold and open style, the middle of Aerospace Development would have been shaken out early, and the final 32-day wave would have been missed, like the view of Mount Everest. The big pattern and subjective guessing of the top are worlds apart. Recently, many newcomers don’t understand my style and question why Blue Cursor and Zhejiang Wenlian didn’t exit at the peak. First, exiting at the peak is just a hindsight judgment based on current results. I am human, not a god. Even top-tier funds can’t always exit precisely at the peak. But it doesn’t affect the overall trend of continuous oscillation upward. Excellent funds objectively follow the market. My style may not have high peaks in the chaotic market, and some profits may be lost because of the big pattern, but that’s my internal pattern. Cycles vary in size. If I always guess the top subjectively in small cycles, where are the classic cases of opening high? For example, the previous cycle in December had a high market in Aerospace Development, the Pingtan cycle in November, the storage Sanlong solid-state Tianji cycle in October, and the current Aerospace Development Tongyu cycle with a 32-day wave. The results are completely different. So, objectively following the market and leaving the height to the cycle and the market is the way to achieve continuous upward movement.

My style charm lies in:

1. Objectively following the market, wise as a fool:

For example, when others see clouds and fog at the foot of a mountain, they subjectively judge it as the top of a small peak and leave early, thinking they are smart. But looking back, it’s just a small cleverness. I insist on clearing the clouds at the foot of the mountain, and suddenly realize it’s another Everest. Looking back, it’s great wisdom as a fool! The charm of focusing on a few big waves is precisely this! Objectively following the market, leaving the height to the market. Many see clouds at the foot of Everest and, to save a few steps, subjectively guess they are at the top, but only after confirming the summit do they descend. Little do they know that’s just the foot of Everest. If they walk a few more steps and see the summit clearly, they turn down. Although they walk more steps, the height may be just an ordinary peak or a huge surprise like Everest. Objectively following the market, following each cycle, the market is the best teacher. We are all endless learners.

2. Dialectical unity and focusing on main contradictions, constantly denying oneself:

Sometimes, I reflect that market philosophy and life are interconnected. Why do core leaders emerge in the market regardless of institutional style or retail sentiment? Because, like life and philosophy, things are sustainable and develop. From the universe to ants, everything is moving forward and recurring. A flower, a leaf, a Bodhi leaf—each cycle’s focus on the core is like finding the market’s core contradiction. Contradictions are universal but also opposites in unity. Whether in the stock market, life, or philosophy, we need to find the core contradiction. Each cycle, whether driven by institutions, retail sentiment, or quant rotation, the sector leaders are just the carriers of current market sentiment. The real core contradiction is what historical mission the market is given. Everything is development and upward trend. Maintaining positive energy is crucial, but so is the ability to constantly deny oneself. When encountering failures or mistakes, like three weeks ago, a positive summary and self-denial are necessary for further progress.

Part 4: Final Remarks
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Personal Style:
Focus on core sectors to break the market, operate with few but precise moves! Belief in sector leaders! Not 100% win rate, but overall big profit, small profit, small loss pattern!

Hereby declare that my personal views are for personal record and reference only, not investment advice.