Wheat Futures Display Mixed Performance Amid Fractional Trading Moves

2026-02-06 19:04:51

Tuesday morning opened with fractional movements across the wheat complex, reflecting the mixed sentiment that carried over from Monday’s broader weakness. The soft red winter wheat contracts led with modest gains, while hard red winter and spring wheat benchmarks continued to show pressure from the previous session’s losses. This mixed performance underscores the nuanced trading conditions currently affecting grain markets.

Fractional Price Movements Across Three Wheat Contracts

Chicago soft red winter (SRW) futures experienced a notable pullback on Monday, with front month contracts retreating 6 to 7 cents as open interest expanded by 695 contracts. The Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) futures saw steeper losses, declining 10 to 11 cents in the front months, while open interest contracted significantly by 7,313 contracts, primarily concentrated in the March delivery. Minneapolis spring wheat rounded out the mixed performance with a 5 to 6 cent decline for the day.

Tuesday’s trading began with fractional reversals, as soft wheat contracts showed marginal strength while the other two wheat benchmarks remained under pressure. This fractional nature of the moves reflects the cautious positioning ahead of fresh fundamental developments.

Current price levels show:

Mar 26 CBOT Wheat: $5.22 1/2 (down 7 cents, currently up 1/2 cent)
May 26 CBOT Wheat: $5.32 3/4 (down 6 1/4 cents, currently up 1/2 cent)
Mar 26 KCBT Wheat: $5.29 3/4 (down 11 cents, currently down 1/2 cent)
May 26 KCBT Wheat: $5.40 1/2 (down 10 cents, currently down 1/2 cent)
Mar 26 MIAX Wheat: $5.70 3/4 (down 5 1/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cent)
May 26 MIAX Wheat: $5.82 1/2 (down 5 1/4 cents, currently down 1 cent)

Export Data Shows Mixed Signals in Weekly Shipment Trends

Monday’s Export Inspections report revealed 351,001 metric tons (12.9 million bushels) of wheat shipped during the week of January 22. This weekly volume represented an 11.76% decline from the prior week and a 27.56% drop compared to the same week last year, signaling mixed momentum in near-term export flows.

Geographic demand revealed South Korea as the leading destination with 119,036 MT purchased, followed by Japan at 73,230 MT and Mexico at 63,773 MT. The varied demand patterns across regions reflect the fractional nature of current buyer interest.

The marketing year cumulative total has now reached 16.33 million metric tons (600.05 million bushels), which represents an 18.21% increase versus the same period in the prior year. This year-over-year outperformance demonstrates underlying strength despite the mixed weekly data.

USDA Sales Commitments Suggest Mixed Medium-term Outlook

The USDA’s Export Sales data released Friday indicated wheat commitments reaching 21.03 MMT by January 15, representing an 18% increase above the prior year period. This level equates to 86% of the USDA’s annual forecast, approaching the historical 87% average sales pace and suggesting a mixed but generally positive sales trajectory.

The balance between weekly export challenges and stronger year-to-date commitments reflects the fractional adjustments in buyer behavior as market participants navigate price levels and inventory considerations. Traders remain positioned for potential volatility as the market digests these mixed fundamental signals and seasonal supply-demand dynamics continue to evolve.

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