2.6 Review

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The V-shaped recovery of the index, weak sentiment turning strong, short-term focus on high-recognition leading stocks, with bears concentrated on high-level themes and photovoltaics. Before the holiday, the strategy is centered on reduced volume rotation and group recognition.

I. Index and Sentiment

• Index: The three major indices opened lower and then rose across the board to turn red, with the Shanghai Composite above 4080, and the Shenzhen Component/ChiNext up about 0.65%, supported by strong 4030 levels.

• Volume: Half-day trading volume reached 1.38 trillion yuan (a decrease of 64.2 billion), with slight volume increase in the afternoon, showing clear signs of rotation with reduced volume.

• Sentiment: Over 3,800 stocks rose, with increasing number of limit-up stocks. High-level rebound and low-level catch-up run parallel, and group recognition remains key.

II. Leading Stock List (Short-term Core)

  1. Overall Sentiment Leaders: Hengdian World Studios (six days of limit-up, Spring Festival blockbusters), Remote Vision Technology (limit-up in seconds, AI e-commerce).

  2. Sector Leaders

• Chemicals: Cangzhou Dahua, Lily Flower, Baichuan Shares (dyes/raw materials, collectively hitting the limit).

• Commercial Aerospace: Julli Sui, GCL System Integration, China Super Holdings (offshore recovery/solar, leading the rotation).

• Traditional Chinese Medicine: Teyi Pharmaceutical, Hansen Pharmaceutical (policy benefits, limit-up).

• Tungsten Metals: Xianglu Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten (leading the non-ferrous sector).

• AI Applications: Zhejiang Wenhulian, Blue Cursor (recovery, Zhejiang Wenhulian as a weather vane).

  1. Strong Rebound Stocks: Tiandi Online (rebounded after volume contraction and limit-down at high levels, watch for potential breakthrough of previous highs).

III. Bearish Targets (Avoid)

• Photovoltaics (Space Photovoltaics): Association statement triggered a drop of over 5%, strong negative feedback.

• High-level Themes: Some previous speculative stocks and high-level precious metal stocks, with strong cash-out willingness.

• Volume-Reduced High-Level Stocks: Remote Vision Technology’s bidding is weak and prone to cash-out; Tiandi Online has not broken previous highs, so there is significant selling pressure.

IV. Trading Strategies (Leading Bear and Bull)

  1. Leading Stocks: Focus only on high-recognition leaders, buy on dips without chasing highs, quick in and out, hold for 1-2 days, take profit at 5%-8%, stop loss at the 5-day moving average (leaders) / 10-day moving average (oversold).

  2. Avoid Bears: Steer clear of high-level volume-reduced sectors with negative feedback; before the holiday, funds tend to hedge, and high-level stocks are vulnerable to sharp declines.

  3. Position Management: Maintain total positions at 50-60%, with 30% in leaders, 40-50% in cash, and 20% in defensive sectors (consumption, banking).

V. Tomorrow’s Outlook

• Index: Shanghai Composite to fluctuate between 4050-4100, focus on volume and northbound funds.

• Themes: Rotation among chemicals, Chinese medicine, commercial aerospace, and AI applications, with emphasis on the sustainability of leaders and rebound opportunities.

• Risks: Volatility in US stocks, pre-holiday cash-out, and caution against sharp rises followed by pullbacks in reduced volume.

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