#加密市场回调 Bitcoin halves to $60,000, is it a "cycle fate" or the "end of an era"?

Market depth has shrunk by over 30%, with daily liquidations exceeding $2.2 billion. The crash of Bitcoin in early 2026 has pushed hundreds of thousands of high-buying investors to the edge of asset evaporation.

On the morning of February 6, 2026, Bitcoin continued its recent decline, dropping to around $60,000, with a single-day decline of over 12%. In less than a week, Bitcoin plummeted from around $80,000 to nearly $60,000, a roughly $20,000 drop, and compared to the record high of $126,000 set in October last year, Bitcoin's price has nearly halved in just four months.

Is this a short-term market correction or a turning point in Bitcoin's destiny?

01 Market Volatility

This intense fluctuation in the Bitcoin market is no coincidence. As of early February 2026, Bitcoin has fallen about 40% from its 2025 peak, briefly dropping below $76,000, with the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporating over $500 billion.

Unlike previous volatility, this time Bitcoin has shown unusual characteristics. It has not acted as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions but is instead viewed as a high-volatility tech asset, highly correlated with the Nasdaq index.

This crash was also accompanied by large-scale forced liquidations in the futures market. On Sunday, February 1, 2026, $2.2 billion worth of crypto futures were forcibly liquidated, one of the largest liquidation events in crypto market history. Over 335,000 traders lost their accounts.

02 Multiple Factors

This crash results from a confluence of macroeconomic and market factors. Foremost is the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies.

The Fed has recently maintained interest rates unchanged and hinted that there will be no rate cuts in the short term. Meanwhile, President Trump nominated Kevin Wirth to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, a more hawkish figure, intensifying market concerns about tightening policies.

Markets worry that the new chair will reduce market liquidity, accelerate balance sheet reduction, and possibly lessen rate cuts.

Geopolitical factors also played a role, with global "risk aversion" sentiment leading funds to shift toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold, rather than "digital gold" Bitcoin.

Notably, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows, totaling over $1 billion in recent weeks. Data from Glassnode shows that the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders is about $84,100, significantly higher than the current price.

This means many investors entering via ETFs are already at a paper loss.

03 Cycle Debate

A core debate in the Bitcoin market is: does the historic "four-year cycle" still hold?

According to historical patterns, Bitcoin markets typically follow a four-year cycle of three years of growth followed by one year of significant correction. Based on this pattern, 2026 is expected to be a correction year. Some analysts point out that, according to this cycle, peaks are usually followed by corrections that reduce the high point by 75%-85%.

However, some institutions believe the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is failing. Bitwise released a report stating, "The forces that drove the four-year cycle—Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto leverage-driven booms and busts—are significantly weaker than in past cycles."

Asset management firm Bitwise predicts that, driven by accelerating institutional capital inflows, Bitcoin will hit a new high in 2026, effectively ending the correlation with the four-year cycle.

Regarding market outlook, there are clear disagreements among institutions. Fidelity's top market strategist warned that the $126,000 high in October 2025 could mark the top of the current cycle, and investors should prepare for a tough 2026.

Meanwhile, Bernstein's analysts expect the crypto market to be in a short-term bear cycle but to reverse in the first half of 2026.

04 Market Challenges

Market depth has shrunk by over 30%, liquidity is under pressure. According to Kaiko data, Bitcoin's market depth has fallen more than 30% from its October peak. The last time liquidity was this low was after the FTX collapse in 2022.

One of Bitcoin's biggest challenges is its gradually diminishing "safe-haven" halo. During this crash, Bitcoin failed to respond to a weakening dollar or geopolitical pressures and instead intensified a confidence crisis.

Unlike gold and silver, global tensions have driven concerns about dollar devaluation, pushing gold and silver to record highs, while Bitcoin has failed to react to these typical drivers.

Market optimism is also waning. On a macro level, the overall crypto market cap has decreased by at least $700 billion over the past week. This decline not only erased the gains made before Trump’s re-entry into the White House but also ended the previous narrative of growth fueled by policy expectations and regulatory green lights.

05 Future Outlook

Is the current weakness a late-cycle correction or a long-term winter? Different institutions give different answers.

Bernstein notes that the past two years have been Bitcoin’s institutional cycle. Despite recent market adjustments, institutional participation remains resilient. Analysts expect Bitcoin to bottom around $60,000 and then establish a higher price floor.

Fidelity's strategists believe key support levels could be in the $65,000 to $75,000 range.

Galaxy Research, while concerned about overlapping macro and market risks in 2026, remains optimistic about long-term prospects, expecting Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

Market participants are also aware of regulatory changes. Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, stated that government support for crypto "won't magically eliminate downward volatility."

As Bitcoin's price hovers around $60,000, its market depth has fallen more than 30% from its peak, with daily liquidations surpassing $2.2 billion. While institutional funds are withdrawing, long-term holders are also systematically selling their Bitcoin holdings.

Current Bitcoin volatility has fallen behind gold and silver, further weakening its appeal as a risk hedge and speculative asset. Analysts are reaching a consensus that policies can legitimize but cannot support asset price bottoms.