Understanding Why Egg Prices Have Climbed to Unprecedented Levels

The egg aisle at your local grocery store may look noticeably emptier than usual, and if you’ve managed to grab a carton, the sticker shock is real. Egg prices have climbed to levels that are alarming consumers and grocers alike, driven by factors far beyond typical seasonal fluctuations. According to U.S. government records, the average cost of a dozen eggs reached $4.16 in December 2025, representing a staggering 37% increase compared to the previous year—a jump that far outpaced the general grocery inflation rate of just 1.8%.

The situation has only intensified since then. Wholesale egg prices—the cost retailers pay before marking up for consumers—soared to $6.55 earlier in 2025, a dramatic departure from the $0.94 price point observed in January 2022. Projections suggest further increases were anticipated through 2025, with forecasters warning of an additional 20% climb by year-end. Some retailers have begun implementing purchase limits on egg cartons, creating a scenario not seen in decades where shoppers face artificial constraints on basic grocery items.

Bird Flu: The Catastrophic Force Behind Rising Egg Costs

The current egg price crisis traces directly to one culprit: a relentless bird flu outbreak that has decimated poultry populations across the nation. The H5N1 strain first emerged during the early COVID-19 pandemic and has persisted with alarming intensity, infecting more than 145 million birds since January 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Unlike typical seasonal price variations tied to winter holiday baking demands, this outbreak represents an unprecedented supply chain crisis.

The mechanics are sobering: when a poultry farm detects H5N1, regulations mandate the culling of the entire flock as a preventive measure, regardless of flock size. Farmers operating substantial operations have faced this devastating scenario repeatedly throughout the outbreak’s duration. The cumulative impact has been severe—data analysis shows that more than 30 million laying hens have been eliminated since November 2024 alone, directly shrinking the nation’s egg production capacity.

Historical Precedent and Current Severity

To understand the magnitude of the current crisis, it’s instructive to examine the 2015 bird flu outbreak. That incident resulted in approximately 50 million poultry deaths and triggered a notable price surge, with egg costs jumping from roughly $2 to $3 per dozen within months. By spring 2016, however, prices had already retreated below pre-outbreak levels, settling back under $2 a dozen for years thereafter.

The present situation is demonstrably worse. The current outbreak has killed substantially more birds than 2015, and the virus shows no clear signs of slowing its spread. Regional shortages have materialized in multiple states, with some areas experiencing near-empty shelves for extended periods. The supply disruption is proving more persistent than previous agricultural crises, suggesting that the timeline for price normalization may be considerably longer than historical patterns suggest.

Market Outlook and Consumer Expectations

Forecasts from agricultural economists painted a picture of sustained high prices through 2025, with expectations of further increases even as officials promised eventual relief. The broader question animating policy discussions involves whether energy and production efficiency improvements might eventually ease costs across the grocery sector—a proposition that remains uncertain given the specialized challenges of poultry farming.

For consumers navigating these expensive egg prices at checkout, the immediate outlook suggests patience will be required. The combination of reduced flock sizes, the time required to rebuild poultry populations, and ongoing disease vigilance means that returning to pre-outbreak price levels represents a multi-quarter challenge rather than an immediate resolution. Whether prices stabilize in coming months or continue their climb depends heavily on whether new outbreaks can be contained or the virus eventually runs its epidemiological course.