In the dark days of crypto, Real Vision founder: Hold firmly, buy the dip boldly

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal shares his 38 years of trading experience, believing that the current crypto market crash is more like a bullish correction in 2021, and emphasizing that “holding firm and bravely bottom-fishing” is the best strategy to navigate cycles. This article is based on a research report by Raoul Pal, translated by Dongqu.
(Background: How to get rich in Crypto without relying on luck? Financial veteran Raoul Pal reveals his investment approach.)
(Additional context: Grayscale releases 2026 outlook: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle ends, but Trump’s bull market is not over—“new highs coming soon.”)

The current market is riddled with scars and despair, seemingly hopeless, as if everything has come to an end. You’ve missed opportunities and once again made a mess of things.

Everyone is caught in anger and confusion. Even those who anticipated this downturn, feeling some “unlucky foresight,” are aware of the severe impact on many investors. At this moment, it’s like the darkest night before dawn.

I’ve been trading for 38 years, experiencing all kinds of crashes and panic waves. Each time, the feeling is the same—extremely terrible.

I entered the crypto market in 2013, buying Bitcoin for the first time at $200.

After my initial purchase, Bitcoin briefly rose, then plummeted 75%. That was still during a bull market, and the price eventually soared more than 10 times my entry cost. I never sold because it was a long-term position, fully aware of the risks involved.

In the 2014 bear market, Bitcoin dropped another 87%.

During the subsequent bull run through 2017, I faced three sharp declines of 35% to 45%, staggering in severity. Ultimately, due to Bitcoin’s fork controversy, I sold everything at $2000, which was also the previous high in 2013.

At that point, my position had increased tenfold from my initial entry. Yet, after I sold, Bitcoin surged another 10 times by the end of that year—unbelievable! Then, another long and brutal bear market began.

I was fortunate enough to completely avoid that downturn, feeling quite proud of it at the time.

Later, during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, I re-entered Bitcoin at $6500, which was 3.5 times higher than my previous exit. I thought I was making the “right choice,” but looking back, it was a costly mistake.

From April to July 2021, Bitcoin dropped 50%. The market sentiment then was almost identical to now—media and social media were at rock bottom, and the mood was extremely bleak. But even then, the oversold condition was nowhere near as severe as today.

By November 2021, the market rebounded strongly to new highs: SOL surged 13 times from its lows, Ethereum doubled in price, and Bitcoin hit record highs, up 150%.

I’ve experienced all of this firsthand. In this long-term bull cycle, I’ve been present at every heartbeat, every breathless moment.

My initial entry was at $200, and now Bitcoin has reached $65,000. Despite missing out on a 3.5x rally due to failed trades, the overall return remains substantial.

For me, the first core lesson of investing in a long-term bullish asset is to stay put. “HODL” (hold on for dear life) has become an unwavering mantra in crypto, not by coincidence. Its power far exceeds the narrative of “four-year cycles.”

The second lesson is to bravely add to your position during market crashes. Even if your timing isn’t perfect, gradually increasing your holdings during weak markets can generate compound growth over the long run, often outperforming dollar-cost averaging strategies.

I don’t always have enough capital to buy heavily during every dip, but I always buy some, as it trains my mental resilience.

Whenever markets crash, people tend to think they’ve missed the last chance to buy, that the trend will never return, and that everything will fall apart forever. But that’s not the reality.

Ask yourself two questions: Will the world be more digital tomorrow than today? Will the purchasing power of fiat currency be weaker than today?

If both answers are yes, then keep holding. Brave the lows, let time’s compound effect beat the temptation of short-term trading, because ultimately, the former always wins. Buying more during deep retracements can effectively lower your average cost and lead to very different outcomes.

On this investment journey, pressure, fear, and self-doubt are inevitable costs to bear.

The size of your position should match your risk tolerance. Don’t overanalyze—everyone feels the same: during declines, you think you’ve bet too heavily; during rises, you regret not having bought more. Your job is to learn how to manage these emotions and find your own rhythm.

Another key tip is to avoid blindly following others’ judgments. “DYOR (Do Your Own Research)” remains an unbreakable principle in crypto. Without independent thinking, you won’t survive the darkest moments.

You must build a solid belief system. Following the crowd is like using leverage—ultimately, it will leave you with nothing.

Remember: when you spend time blaming others, you’re really just venting your dissatisfaction with yourself.

Admittedly, the market is dark right now, but dawn will come soon. This crash will eventually become another mark in your investment history. The key is—don’t use leverage! Leverage can wipe out your principal, like losing all your chips at the poker table. Never lose your chips.

When will these clouds clear? I can’t predict, but to me, it resembles the panic correction in the bull run from April to November 2021. I believe this will pass quickly. Even if my analysis is wrong, I won’t change my strategy—if I still have cash, I will keep adding.

But for you, the situation might be entirely different. Consider creating a “zero regret investment portfolio”: can you handle a 50% drop from current levels? If not, reduce your holdings accordingly—even if it feels foolish now. Having the right mindset is crucial to surviving the market’s harsh winter. My mindset is to think about adding more; yours might be the opposite.

There will always be trading geniuses who can perfectly exit at the top or even short the market. There will be such people in the future. But honestly, all you need to do is keep reminding yourself: a crash can happen at any moment. When it arrives, you won’t panic because you’re already prepared. Let crashes be a chapter in your investment story, not the whole story.

What am I doing right now?

I am acquiring more digital art (equivalent to increasing my Ethereum holdings) and plan to continue adding to my crypto assets next week, just as I have done every time these dips appeared in the past.

During the COVID crash, I bought the dip; during the 2021 crash, I bought the dip; in 2022 and 2023, I did the same. In 2024 and 2025, I will continue to buy on dips! This time, I am sticking to it. Every time, my account’s profit and loss are the first to hit new highs before the market does. This method has proven repeatedly. One more time: brave the bottom!

Wishing everyone all the best. The path of investing has never been easy.

If you want to hold assets with long-term compounding growth potential, you must accept their volatility—this is the price we pay. Learn to coexist with volatility.