Six crypto market trends that will transform 2026 according to Mercado Bitcoin

The news circulating in the crypto markets is clear: 2026 will be a year of profound transformation driven by six key dynamics. Mercado Bitcoin, one of Latin America’s most influential trading platforms, has released a report that dissects the fundamental components that will redefine the cryptocurrency landscape in the coming months. These changes range from the growing rivalry between Bitcoin and gold to the explosion of prediction markets and AI agents integrated into blockchain.

The battle between Bitcoin and gold: a news story questioning traditional reserves

The most impactful news from Mercado Bitcoin’s report revolves around a bold prediction: Bitcoin could capture 14% of gold’s market capitalization before the end of 2026. Currently, that proportion is around 5.65%, implying that BTC’s price, which is approximately $78,000, would need to more than double under a baseline scenario.

This analysis is not speculation but the result of a rigorous methodology developed in collaboration with researchers from the University of California (UCLA). The “Bitcoin Valuation Framework” uses a Total Addressable Market (TAM) approach, starting from the global store of value market and taking gold as the primary reference. Analysts project what portion of this market Bitcoin could capture under different adoption scenarios.

What’s interesting is that Bitcoin is displacing gold in the minds of institutional investors, not for performance but for functionality. Its digital, borderless, self-custody nature makes it more attractive than physical assets that face logistical challenges. Corporate treasuries have accumulated over 1.09 million Bitcoin, demonstrating that cryptocurrency has already moved beyond a niche asset to become part of global reserve strategies.

Stablecoins: the engine parts powering the entire crypto infrastructure

If there is one component that has transformed the crypto infrastructure from its foundations, it is stablecoins. Mercado Bitcoin projects that this sector will grow to reach a market capitalization of $500 billion in 2026, compared to the roughly $307 billion it currently has.

What’s notable is that stablecoins have evolved beyond trading tools. They now function as payment instruments in various countries and sectors, especially in regions where local currencies are volatile. In 2025, the sector grew nearly 50% year-over-year, starting the year around $205 billion. This growth reflects both increased adoption and emerging regulatory clarity, particularly in the United States.

The most dynamic parts of the sector will be stablecoins not pegged to the US dollar. Tether’s USDT maintains dominance with 60.5% of the market, but the space is diversifying, allowing more projects to capture value as regulators define clear frameworks for their operation.

Altcoin ETFs: how this news attracts institutional capital to new assets

Regulatory approval of ETFs for cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum marked a turning point at the end of 2025. Funds linked to XRP, Solana, and Chainlink began attracting significant institutional capital. XRP ETFs manage around $1,470 million in assets, while Solana ETFs add another $1,090 million.

This news has profound implications: traditional investors can now access altcoins through regulated frameworks without the complexity of directly custodying cryptocurrencies. Mercado Bitcoin anticipates that altcoin ETFs (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) will reach at least $10 billion by the end of 2026, with XRP and SOL accounting for approximately 80% of the new inflows.

Asset tokenization: transforming parts of the traditional financial system

One of the less discussed but potentially most disruptive trends is the tokenization of real-world assets. The global volume of these assets is expected to increase by 200%, surpassing $54 billion in 2026.

The parts that have catalyzed this change are regulatory advances in key markets. The European Union authorized larger volumes of tokenized transactions on approved blockchains, while the US recognized blockchain-based records for asset transfers. Institutions like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree have launched their own tokenized funds, while others are studying potential launches.

This movement is not cosmetic. Tokenization improves efficiency and accessibility for both issuers and investors, creating new layers of liquidity in markets that have historically been opaque and hard to access.

Prediction markets: from experiment to $20 billion explosion

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are the fastest-growing segment in cryptocurrencies. These platforms allow users to trade on the probability of future events—from political elections to sporting outcomes.

Mercado Bitcoin projects that the capital locked in these markets could reach $20 billion by the end of 2026, a jump of approximately 25 times from an estimated current figure below $1 billion. This growth is fueled by global events such as the 2026 World Cup, presidential elections in major economies, and the rise of markets linked to entertainment and climate scenarios.

The peer-to-peer model of these platforms and the aligned incentives between users and platforms also significantly contribute to their expansion.

Blockchain-powered AI agents: the next frontier of onchain activity

Finally, Mercado Bitcoin highlights the emerging role of AI agents integrated with blockchain. These agents, designed to make autonomous decisions and execute transactions, are leveraging new technical standards to meet demands for transparency, traceability, and micropayments.

The traded volume by AI agents is estimated to surpass $1 million per day in 2026, quadrupling current levels. This trend marks a fundamental shift in how users and machines interact within decentralized ecosystems.

The convergence of trends defining 2026

What emerges from this news is a convergence: Bitcoin challenging gold, stablecoins fueling global transactions, ETFs democratizing access to altcoins, asset tokenization transforming physical assets, prediction markets scaling exponentially, and AI agents automating onchain activity. The parts of this ecosystem do not operate in isolation but reinforce each other, creating a significantly more mature, regulated, and integrated crypto market with the global economy in 2026.