Will the trend of the last bull-bear cycle reoccur? This question has been discussed very frequently in the trading community recently.

By carefully comparing historical data, Bitcoin indeed shows similar patterns in each cycle—building momentum from the bottom, breaking through, skyrocketing, and then pulling back at the top. However, a "complete replication" is almost impossible because the structure of market participants has changed, institutional entry scales are different, and the macro environment is also evolving.

The key is to catch the rhythm. If this cycle continues with the increased holding strategy, it’s essential to understand: which stage of the cycle are we in? How are the chips distributed between institutions and retail investors? Where are the support and resistance levels?

Rather than worrying about whether it will replicate, it’s better to study the unique characteristics of this cycle—policy guidance, technological development, and capital flow. These are the true basis for formulating an increased holding plan.