Recent signals of risk in the international markets continue to emerge. The US government has announced that starting February 1st, a 10% tariff will be imposed on European goods, and if negotiations make no progress within five months, the tariff will be raised to 25%. The European Union immediately responded that this is "unacceptable," and 27 member states are preparing retaliatory measures, with a retaliation list expected to be announced this Monday.

This round of trade friction escalation is not an isolated event. Historical data shows that during the US-EU trade disputes in 2019, global stock markets experienced significant volatility, and the cryptocurrency market was also under pressure. Considering that the US stock market is closed on Monday, the related negative expectations may be concentrated on Tuesday, when risk appetite among funds declines, putting pressure on all high-valuation assets.

More notably, changes in monetary policy are worth paying attention to. Recently, Federal Reserve officials explicitly stated that they will pause the rate cut cycle at the end of January, mainly because inflation data still has not reached the target level. On the international level, major economies such as Japan and Europe have also stopped cutting interest rates or even started raising them. This indicates that global liquidity is marginally tightening, and high-valuation assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks have recently hit record highs, which indeed creates internal adjustment pressures.

Historically, cryptocurrencies are highly correlated with the macro liquidity environment. When market funds shift to a cautious outlook, short-term corrections often occur suddenly. Although current coin prices are still on an upward trajectory, the risk accumulation during this rise cannot be ignored. Investors are advised to closely monitor the progress of Federal Reserve meetings and EU retaliatory measures, and to prepare for risk management in advance.