2026-01-18 14:25:56

The latest global fund manager survey by U.S. banks is quite interesting — the perception that companies are overspending on AI has eased somewhat in December, but overall sentiment remains pessimistic. This concern peaked in November last year, reaching levels not seen since 2005, and has not fully subsided to this day.

In simple terms, this wave of anxiety mainly stems from the frantic investments in AI infrastructure such as cloud computing and data centers. The capital expenditure by major tech companies in this area is unprecedented, while US stock valuations are still high and institutional cash holdings are not abundant. In this environment, the notion of "overinvestment" easily becomes an excuse for portfolio rebalancing and profit-taking, putting short- to medium-term pressure on US stocks, especially AI leaders and chip-related stocks.

However, on the other hand, capital expenditure is essentially a bet on future profit growth. If AI can truly drive significant productivity improvements, then these current debates might just be another "noise during the construction phase" in history.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

DegenWhisperer

· 5h ago

Honestly, this is just a cyclical panic, as always during major technological waves. Wait, when cloud computing was pouring money in, was it over-investment? What about during the internet bubble? History repeats itself. Capital expenditure, in simple terms, is betting on the future—seeing who bets right. The problem is that AI's true killer app hasn't appeared yet, no wonder fund managers are uncertain. In the short term, valuations continue to be hammered down; in the long run, these funds will ultimately flow into projects with real business models. The current panic selling is mostly driven by noise scaring people away. The most painful thing is that institutions lack cash, which shows that their gains this wave are also significant; they should take profits when the time is right.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidationSurvivor

· 6h ago

It's the same old story, betting future profits with capital expenditure? It sounds great, but I'm afraid it might all be for nothing again.

View OriginalReply0

HorizonHunter

· 6h ago

It's all because of this wave of anxiety; when institutions run out of money, they start blaming AI for over-investment. This is just the construction phase; we'll see once productivity picks up. The chip industry is indeed bearing the pressure this time, but the long-term logic hasn't been broken.

View OriginalReply0

MondayYoloFridayCry

· 6h ago

It's the same old story... I don't oppose big tech companies spending money, but I'm just worried that in the end, there might not be such great returns.

View OriginalReply0

ProveMyZK

· 6h ago

Here comes the same argument of "construction period noise" again, which is getting a bit tiresome... But if AI can actually deliver, the current bearish rhetoric would indeed seem quite funny.

View OriginalReply0