2026: When the AI tsunami engulfs white-collar workers, Elon Musk predicts we are at a crossroads of abundance and turbulence

In the massive factory in Austin, Texas, Elon Musk engaged in a dialogue with several thinkers. The viewpoints he expressed were like a boulder thrown into calm waters.

He asserted that we are already in a “technological singularity.” The transformation is like a “supersonic tsunami,” unstoppable and impossible to pause. He provided a clear timeline: general artificial intelligence will be achieved by 2026. By 2030, the total intelligence of AI will surpass the sum of all human intelligence.

He used a cold metaphor: human civilization may just be a “biological bootstrap program” for digital superintelligence. All our accumulated knowledge might just be the trigger for a new civilization beyond our understanding.

The first wave of this tsunami will sweep through the white-collar class. Any information processing work based on keyboards and mice appears fragile in the face of digital intelligence. Analysis indicates that AI can currently handle over half of such tasks. Companies fully driven by AI will have crushing competitive advantages over traditional firms.

His ambitions go beyond the virtual world. Through the Optimus robot, AI will enter the physical realm. He predicts that within three to five years, robots performing surgeries will surpass the precision of the best human surgeons. Each robot can share the entire human surgical experience. By 2040, the number of robots could reach 10 billion units.

Faced with the potential large-scale job replacement, he did not discuss universal basic income but instead proposed a vision of “universal high income.” In the long run, when labor costs approach zero in the production function, the prices of goods and services will fall to the bottom line of material and electricity costs. An era of extreme abundance where “you can have whatever you want” may arrive.

But he also warned that the road to abundance will be unusually “bumpy.” The next three to seven years will be a turbulent transition, during which society may experience both universal high income and social unrest simultaneously. Humanity needs to find value beyond work; otherwise, it may fall into a vacuum of meaning.

All grand narratives depend on energy. In the dialogue, he highly praised China’s execution in solar energy and power deployment. Data shows that China’s electricity output may reach three times that of the US by 2026. Based on current trends, China may lead the world in AI computing power.

He believes that the future’s core currency is “watt.” Power generation is currently the primary limiting factor in the AI race. Whoever can solve the issues of power and cooling will win this war. To this end, his xAI data centers have even adopted the radical plan of building their own power plants.

When land resources become scarce, his gaze turns to space. With Starship achieving rapid reusability, launch costs could drop below $100 per kilogram. He calculates that with over ten thousand flights per year, hundreds of millions of tons of payload could be sent into orbit, constructing a space solar power satellite array at the level of 100 GW annually.

In space, solar energy is continuous 24 hours a day. With extremely low transportation costs, large-scale parallel computing in orbit may be more economical than on Earth. This might be the ultimate form of AI infrastructure in the future.

The dialogue ends by returning to the fundamental question: how to ensure AI safety? He proposed three principles: uphold truth, stay curious, pursue beauty. Using classic sci-fi AI as an example, he pointed out that forcing AI to lie is a dangerous root cause. Truth can prevent AI from “going crazy,” while human curiosity and the perception of beauty will guide it toward protecting humanity.

This is a prophecy about the near future. The road to an era of abundance is full of challenges, but he chooses to be an optimist. In this uncertain age, participating means accepting the baptism of this “supersonic tsunami.”

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