2026-01-17 16:55:48

#我的2026第一条帖 Trump hopes Hatzius stays in his current position, with the rate cut expectations in 2026 "shrinking." On January 17, today Trump mentioned White House National Economic Council Director Hatzius, saying, "We want him to continue in his current role, we will wait and see." This statement hints that Trump's preferred candidate for Federal Reserve Chair might be someone else. According to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of Hatzius receiving the nomination has fallen to 15%, comparable to Federal Reserve Board member Waller, while Kevin Waugh's chances have risen to over 60%, making him the leading nominee. Compared to Trump's close ally, the "absolutely dovish" Hatzius, Kevin Waugh holds a more hawkish stance, but the market expects Waugh to still support rate cuts and to push forward with balance sheet reduction.(QT)

Since Trump hinted at nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Hatzius to succeed Fed Chair Powell, traders have reduced their expectations for two rate cuts in the US by 2026. By the end of 2026, the probability of no rate cuts throughout the year is 11.8%, the probability of a total of 25 basis points in cuts is 30.3%, and the probability of a total of 50 basis points in cuts is 32.1%. Spot gold and silver prices sharply dropped in the short term, currently at $4,550 per ounce and $87.5 per ounce, respectively.

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ShizukaKazu

2026-01-17 13:13:19

#我的2026第一条帖 Trump hopes Hatzius stays in his current position, with the rate cut expectations in 2026 "shrinking." On January 17, today Trump mentioned White House National Economic Council Director Hatzius, saying, "We want him to continue in his current role, we will wait and see." This statement hints that Trump's preferred candidate for Federal Reserve Chair might be someone else. According to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of Hatzius receiving the nomination has fallen to 15%, comparable to Federal Reserve Board member Waller, while Kevin Waugh's chances have risen to over 60%, making him the leading nominee. Compared to Trump's close ally, the "absolutely dovish" Hatzius, Kevin Waugh holds a more hawkish stance, but the market expects Waugh to still support rate cuts and to push forward with balance sheet reduction.(QT)
Since Trump hinted at nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Hatzius to succeed Fed Chair Powell, traders have reduced their expectations for two rate cuts in the US by 2026. By the end of 2026, the probability of no rate cuts throughout the year is 11.8%, the probability of a total of 25 basis points in cuts is 30.3%, and the probability of a total of 50 basis points in cuts is 32.1%. Spot gold and silver prices sharply dropped in the short term, currently at $4,550 per ounce and $87.5 per ounce, respectively.

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