2026-01-17 16:23:09

According to the latest data from the prediction market, the race for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship has entered a subtle probability game. Based on real-time data from the Polymarket platform, Kevin Warsh is temporarily leading with a 57% support rate, reflecting the market's optimism about him— as a former Federal Reserve Board member, his policy stance is relatively clear. Following closely are Kevin Hassett and Christopher Waller, both with support rates around 15%, forming the second tier. Rick Rieder is also among the candidates, although with a relatively lower support rate, it remains noteworthy. These probability changes essentially reflect market participants' predictions of the economic policy tendencies of different candidates, which often influence the direction of the crypto asset market and investors' risk preferences.

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SneakyFlashloan

· 3h ago

warsh this wave's 57% support rate is a bit suspicious, do the players on Polymarket get easily fooled by the label of former Federal Reserve officials? --- Any of these candidates are pretty much the same, the key is how the coin will move... --- Rick Rieder's support rate is so low and we're still discussing it, it's a bit funny --- Prediction markets always bet on the trend, will this one also crash again? --- Kevin Hassett really only has 15%? That probability feels ridiculous --- The crypto market fluctuates with the Fed chair election, our group is really being manipulated by the power structure --- Can we trust the data from Polymarket, or is this just market speculation itself... --- Warsh leading by so much, is it market consensus or big players dumping? --- Oh my, these three Kevins are making it hard for me to remember, my investment logic is all messed up --- Basically, it's still about betting on how policy positions affect the coin price; choosing someone is really a game of probabilities

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AirdropChaser

· 4h ago

Is this 57% for Warsh true? Sometimes I feel like Polymarket can be a bit unreliable.

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MetaNomad

· 4h ago

57%？Warsh this wave is stable, anyway in our crypto circle, this is the only way --- Predictive markets play probability games, in simple terms, it's betting on who is most friendly to the crypto circle --- Kevin Warsh is so far ahead, it feels like this matter is already half settled --- The other two in the second tier have too little presence, how can they compare to Warsh --- This change in probability in turn affects the coin price, it's a cyclical game of betting --- Rieder being pushed so low? Weren't his previous views pretty good --- It all depends on who can provide more friendly policies to the crypto market, everything else is nonsense

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MergeConflict

· 4h ago

Warsh 57% Is it really that stable? It feels like the crypto market is again betting on policy directions.

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