#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 Precious Metals Weekly Report (1.12-1.17): Rise First, Then Correction

This week's spot gold movement is quite interesting. It opened around $4510/oz, briefly surged to a record high of $4642.85/oz, and closed on Friday back at $4595/oz, up 1.8% for the week. It looks steady with a slight upward trend, but the fluctuations have increased—Friday's intraday low was $4537.79/oz, with clear profit-taking pressure at higher levels.

**Why is gold still rising?**

Central banks around the world are疯狂囤金 (buying gold aggressively). China's central bank has increased holdings for 14 consecutive months, with net purchases exceeding 50 tons in the first two weeks of January. This sustained buying power has become a long-term support for gold prices. The recent weakening of the US dollar index lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, encouraging more funds to buy the dip. Additionally, ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East also support safe-haven demand.

There are also opposing pressures: US economic data is relatively strong, leading markets to expect a possible delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, which constrains gold from continuing its rally. However, institutional confidence remains intact—the largest gold ETF (SPDR) holdings reached 1074.80 tons, a new high in three and a half years.

**What does technical analysis say?**

The daily chart still shows an upward trend. The 50-day moving average is at $4287, serving as medium-term support. Resistance levels are at $4640-4650 and $4675. If prices fall below $4520, consider watching or lightly shorting with a target of $4450. If it breaks below $4520, wait and see or try small short positions with a target of $4450.

**How to operate?**

Short-term: In a high-level consolidation, chasing the rally is not advisable. Wait until support at $4550-4570 holds firmly before trying to add long positions with a small amount, targeting $4620-4640. If it drops below $4520, consider observing or small short positions with a target of $4450.

Medium-term: When prices return to the $4445-4458 range, consider building multiple long positions, with a stop-loss below $4400 and a main target of $4800-5000.

**Risk points**

Gold prices are already at historical highs, increasing the risk of technical corrections. If inflation rebounds, rate cuts are delayed, or geopolitical risks suddenly ease, there could be a significant correction.

Next week, continue to monitor US inflation data, Federal Reserve officials' comments, geopolitical developments, ETF holdings, and the dollar index movements.