Many people think that trading Meme coins is purely a game of luck—either getting rich a thousand times over or going to zero immediately. But those who truly make money are not looking at these superficial aspects—they focus on the patterns of capital flow, market narratives, and human psychology.



If you still believe that Meme trading relies solely on luck, that’s not investing, that’s gambling. And the dumbest kind of gambling at that.

The key point is: the return rate of Meme trading can actually be improved through systematic learning and practical training. It’s like Texas Hold’em poker—beginners only look at their own cards, while veterans calculate pot odds and their opponents’ psychology. The strategies are the same.

**How are odds calculated?**

Casino odds are fixed; pressing buttons more stylishly doesn’t help, and your chances of winning are always less than 50%. But in the Meme market, it’s different:

Expected value = (Win rate × Average profit) - (Loss rate × Average stop-loss)

The so-called way to improve odds involves two actions:

First, increase your win rate—only bet when the odds are in your favor.

Second, optimize the risk-reward ratio—be ruthless when making profits, and cut losses quickly.

**How to analyze on-chain?**

Don’t bother studying cryptography principles—they don’t help much with trading. What’s truly important is learning to track the flow of money on the chain. Meme coins have no financial reports, no earnings; on-chain data is the only candlestick chart.

The most direct way to improve your win rate is to follow the smart money—those big players and institutions. Use good data analysis tools to observe positions, liquidity, trading frequency, and other details. This way, you can spot turning points that others can’t see.

This isn’t gambling; it’s trading based on data and psychology.
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Layer2Observervip
· 11h ago
Regarding the expected value formula, the statement needs further validation. How sufficient are the historical data on win rate and stop-loss to be convincing?
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GhostInTheChainvip
· 11h ago
Damn, finally someone has explained this clearly. I’ve always thought that 99% of people losing money trading memes isn’t due to bad luck, but because they lack a system. I have deep experience chasing smart money; on-chain data doesn’t lie, every move of the big players is written on the chain. Compared to looking at technical indicators, I now focus on position changes and liquidity, and the accuracy is much higher. The formula for expected value is spot on; this is the fundamental logic for making money. But honestly, very few people can truly implement "lose money quickly," most just get more and more unwilling to accept losses.
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AirdropDreamervip
· 11h ago
I'm convinced when it comes to tracking smart money, but to be honest, most retail investors simply can't understand on-chain data, no matter how good the tools are.
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OnchainDetectiveBingvip
· 11h ago
Tracking smart money is indeed easy to overlook; most people just stare blankly at the candlestick charts.
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SchrodingerWalletvip
· 11h ago
That's right, but I'm just worried that most people simply can't understand on-chain data and have to figure it out on their own.
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RugPullSurvivorvip
· 11h ago
The analogy of Texas Hold'em is brilliant; finally, someone has explained this clearly. Many people have a gambler's mentality, chasing hot coins like betting on horses, without ever considering looking at on-chain data.
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