2026-01-17 10:50:52

#比特币2026年行情展望 A political statement in the US political arena can stir up waves in the global capital markets.

Recently, Trump's comments on White House National Economic Council Director Harshest triggered a chain reaction—"Good performance, he may continue to stay," followed by a meaningful "We will wait and see." The market immediately responded: the dollar began to rebound, while gold quickly plunged to its lowest level since Tuesday.

What exactly is being traded behind this? Frankly, the market is not betting on the fate of a certain official, but on how strong the independence of US monetary policy is.

Among all potential candidates, Harshest's characteristics are quite clear—deep ties to Trump, the weakest independence, and a dovish stance (favoring rate cuts). This is also the source of controversy, as some Republican senators are not very optimistic about his prospects.

**Recent Pressure on the Crypto Market**

A strong dollar usually suppresses risk assets, and the decline in gold indicates risk-averse funds are on the sidelines. These signals suggest that Bitcoin may face short-term pressure, and market sentiment is warming up to wait and see.

**But look at the medium to long term from a different perspective**

If Harshest continues to stay, his "dovish" identity will be essentially confirmed. This means expectations of future rate cuts still exist. Once policies truly shift towards easing, the first to receive the new liquidity will be risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is highly sensitive to "policy shifts," a fact repeatedly validated by historical data.

**Core Reflection**

This is not just about personnel appointments but a signal—central bank independence is being re-priced by the market. When investors begin to question the autonomy of monetary policy, Bitcoin may become a new narrative for "policy hedging." The market is not afraid of uncertainty; what it fears most is policies turning economic decisions into political tools.

**Short-term vs. Medium to Long-term**

In the short term, a strong dollar and outflow of risk-averse funds put pressure on Bitcoin sentiment. But if the "political rate cut" expectation truly materializes, and liquidity returns, cryptocurrencies are very likely to once again become the preferred target for incremental funds.

BTC-5,92%

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CoinBasedThinking

· 01-20 07:42

Basically, it's betting on interest rate cuts. When rates are cut, it's time to jump in.

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MEV_Whisperer

· 01-19 18:58

Basically, it's a gamble on policy. In the short term, it's pressured by the dollar, but in the long term, dovish rate cut expectations are a positive... This wave of liquidity returning makes BTC still the first choice; history has proven this too many times.

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BrokeBeans

· 01-18 22:50

The idea of political interest rate cuts sounds ridiculous; it feels like another scheme to trap retail investors.

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ConsensusDissenter

· 01-17 11:21

Political rate cuts? Ha, that's just betting whether the central bank still has backbone. Basically, it's about who is more dominant. --- In the short term, the dollar is strong, but in the long run, it depends on where liquidity flows. This game isn't that simple. --- Once personnel changes shake the market, I just want to ask: are we investing in assets or gambling on politics? --- If the Hasset card really becomes solidified, then just wait and see when the rate cut expectations materialize. At that point, risk assets should take off. --- The dollar is arrogant now, but liquidity is like water flowing downhill; in the end, it has to return to the areas with the fastest growth. --- Political games are used as policy tools, and the crypto circle has long been accustomed to this. Anyway, we profit from this kind of uncertainty. --- It looks like short-term pressure, but if they really loosen the policy, won't the first influx of new funds be into crypto? The historical data already shows it.

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NestedFox

· 01-17 11:17

Hasset, this guy, once he solidifies his dovish stance, the subsequent liquidity story becomes even more incredible. --- In simple terms, it's a gamble on whether the central bank remains independent or not. If not, then BTC might actually be the best hedge. --- It's uncomfortable in the short term, but if interest rate cuts really happen, where will the funds flow... isn't it still into crypto? --- Playing political games with monetary policy—that's the most frightening part. The spring of Bitcoin might really be here. --- The dollar rebound suppresses the market in the short term, but this signal is actually paving the way for expectations of easing later on. --- The key phrase is "We will wait and see." A single comment from Trump can turn the market, and the independence of the central bank is truly breaking down. --- When liquidity returns, everyone knows risk assets will surge. It all depends on when the wind starts to ease. --- Are safe-haven funds on the sidelines? That indicates the market hasn't fully priced in yet. Once the expectation of rate cuts is confirmed, there will be opportunities.

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SmartContractPhobia

· 01-17 11:11

Political rate cuts are coming... I’m familiar with this trick. Short-term pain, long-term gain. Let’s see how long it can last.

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blocksnark

· 01-17 11:07

Basically, it's a gamble on whether the Federal Reserve can still make independent decisions. It's really amusing.

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GateUser-6bc33122

· 01-17 11:00

Uh... to put it simply, it's just one word from Trump, and the crypto circle follows the roller coaster. This routine is all too familiar.

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GovernancePretender

· 01-17 10:55

Basically, it's betting on rate cuts. The dollar's rebound is just short-term fluctuations. When the real liquidity tide arrives, BTC will be the first choice.

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