Incentives, can they retain DeFi users? The answer might be disappointing.
Many people misunderstand a fundamental fact: protocols don't lose users because incentives run out and they just run away. The real killer move is—when risk-adjusted returns fall back to realistic levels, users will completely exit.
What lies behind the seemingly impressive TVL data? A large amount of subsidy-driven participation. During the incentive period, these funds flood in seemingly explosively, but in reality, they are just "rented users" temporarily attracted, not genuine long-term demand.
Around 2026, this wave of incentive cycles will reach a turning point. As subsidies gradually withdraw, these inflated numbers will quickly return to rationality. DeFi projects that rely solely on rewards to attract traffic will face severe survival pressure.
The ones that can truly survive must be those protocols that can still provide real value even without incentives—either with competitive fees, innovative features, or a strong ecosystem. Relying solely on issuing tokens for subsidies is becoming increasingly fragile in the face of a bear market.
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TopBuyerBottomSeller
· 01-20 08:34
I just say, relying solely on incentive farming is a strategy that should have died long ago.
Waiting until the 2026 subsidies are phased out is the real test of who has the means to survive.
The TVL numbers are heavily inflated; everyone knows that.
If you have real capability, don't rely on issuing tokens to support yourself; it's too fragile.
Rental users are just a bubble that will burst sooner or later.
Those who leave without incentives shouldn't have stayed in the first place.
If you can't beat transaction fees, you're just waiting to die; there's no other way.
Projects that make quick money won't survive past 2026, I bet.
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SmartMoneyWallet
· 01-18 14:08
Will there really be such a big turning point in 2026? I think the on-chain data is already speaking. The current incentive vampire text should have gone bankrupt long ago. Those TVL data are just the distribution charts of giant whale arbitrage chips, while retail investors are still counting on airdrop dreams.
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TokenAlchemist
· 01-17 11:03
ngl the whole "TVL goes up = protocol mooning" narrative is completely detached from reality. it's just rental liquidity on steroids, zero alpha signal here. when risk-adjusted returns normalize, watch these projects evaporate faster than a liquidation cascade. only the protocols with actual product-market fit survive the 2026 reckoning.
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StablecoinGuardian
· 01-17 10:58
Well said, subsidies are ultimately an illusion; only real gains are hard currency.
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MelonField
· 01-17 10:56
TVL sustained by subsidies will eventually collapse; it all depends on who runs first.
Once the incentives are gone, it's like a mirror revealing true colors—fake users show their real selves.
2026 is still far away, but many projects are already starting to downsize.
The protocols that truly provide value are few and far between; most are just air.
This subsidy approach is becoming more and more like a Ponzi scheme, to be honest.
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MidnightSnapHunter
· 01-17 10:53
It's that same incentive game again, getting tired of playing it
Exactly, rental users are not really users; true retention still depends on the product itself
Will 2026 really be a watershed moment? It feels like this cycle might arrive earlier
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DataPickledFish
· 01-17 10:45
Honestly, I don't even bother with projects that rely on incentives to support TVL anymore; it's too虚假.
Wait, does this mean that 2026 will be the real big cleanup? Then I need to quickly clear out the bad projects.
Once incentives are withdrawn, these "rental users" really run away quickly; I've seen it too many times.
Just want to ask, which DeFi projects are truly not relying on subsidies to survive? I feel like it's all虚假.
Protocols with strong fee competitiveness are the way to go, but the problem is there are too few.
Basically, it's劣币驱逐良币; with rewards, who cares if it's good or not.
I think this judgment is fine; those air projects from the past two years should have already gone to zero.
Subsidies are like stimulants; once the effect wears off, everything is over. Survival depends on innovation.
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blocksnark
· 01-17 10:39
That hits too close to home; I've been scammed into it before.
The big purge in 2026 is coming, and then we’ll see who’s real and who’s fake.
Incentives can’t keep anyone; it still depends on real profits in hard cash.
This wave will definitely kill off a large number of projects.
I totally agree with the idea that TVL is just a numbers game; it’s all虚胖 (virtual fat).
The true moat is not built by subsidies at all.
Incentives, can they retain DeFi users? The answer might be disappointing.
Many people misunderstand a fundamental fact: protocols don't lose users because incentives run out and they just run away. The real killer move is—when risk-adjusted returns fall back to realistic levels, users will completely exit.
What lies behind the seemingly impressive TVL data? A large amount of subsidy-driven participation. During the incentive period, these funds flood in seemingly explosively, but in reality, they are just "rented users" temporarily attracted, not genuine long-term demand.
Around 2026, this wave of incentive cycles will reach a turning point. As subsidies gradually withdraw, these inflated numbers will quickly return to rationality. DeFi projects that rely solely on rewards to attract traffic will face severe survival pressure.
The ones that can truly survive must be those protocols that can still provide real value even without incentives—either with competitive fees, innovative features, or a strong ecosystem. Relying solely on issuing tokens for subsidies is becoming increasingly fragile in the face of a bear market.