#美联储政策与货币政策 After reviewing the latest divergence situation at the Federal Reserve, I have some thoughts I want to share with everyone.

Officials are almost evenly split on the path of rate cuts by 2026—zero, one, or two cuts. What does this mean? It indicates that the future liquidity environment is highly uncertain. CME data shows only a 20% chance of a rate cut in January, rising to 45% by March. This fluctuation itself serves as a reminder: the policy turning point is still unclear.

What is more concerning is Nomura Securities' risk window—potentially from July to November—where a trend of "fleeing US assets" may emerge. During this period, policy divergence combined with signals of inflation bottoming out could create a breeding ground for significant volatility. Over the years, I’ve seen too many investors over-leverage because they couldn’t clearly see the policy direction, only to be shaken out by market turbulence.

Therefore, my straightforward advice is: **Now is a good time to review your asset allocation**. Ask yourself—are your holdings too concentrated in a single asset? Is your risk tolerance aligned with your position size? During periods of high policy uncertainty, maintaining adequate cash reserves and diversified holdings is often more important than chasing the highest returns.

In the long run, Federal Reserve policies will ultimately return to fundamentals. But in this process, prudent position management can help us weather the volatility, which is the core of asset safety.