#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The policy trajectory of the Federal Reserve in 2026 may present an interesting divergence—relatively stable in the first half of the year, followed by a sharp change in the second half.

In the first half, Powell is still in the final stages of his term, and the policy style is likely to remain moderate and accommodative. The real variables will be triggered in the second half—after the new chair takes office in May. The policy orientation of this person will directly determine the subsequent direction.

The key question is: Will the new chair prioritize hard economic data, or will they lean towards political demands? This choice may seem simple but actually affects the entire interest rate framework in the second half of the year, and consequently impacts the price performance of global assets such as cryptocurrencies, stocks, and bonds. $BTC Risk assets like these are especially sensitive to Federal Reserve policies, so traders should prepare contingency plans in advance.