Rystad Energy predicts US shale production faces contraction once crude oil dips to $50/barrel in 2026. But here's the thing—if we're using that same logic, shouldn't we also be charting when basic survival costs exceed what people can actually afford? The real question: are these forecasting models actually capturing systemic risk, or just extrapolating commodity cycles? WTI crude and energy markets don't exist in a vacuum. Worth thinking about what happens when multiple stress factors collide simultaneously.