2026-01-16 03:26:33

Don't keep betting on the Fed cutting interest rates. The latest interest rate futures data is very revealing: the probability of a rate cut in January is only 5%, in other words, there is a 95% chance that interest rates will stay put. Even for the seemingly slightly "more reliable" March, the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 20.8%, with the majority 78.4% still maintaining the status quo. As for a 50 basis point cut? Don't even think about it, the probability is less than 1%.

Rather than saying the Fed is wavering, it's more accurate to say they have already made a decision — high interest rates are not going to change in the short term. Those who early on bet heavily on "rate cut expectations" should wake up now. What does a prolonged interest rate cycle mean? The entire asset allocation logic needs to be recalculated.

Why is the Fed so hawkish? Looking at the actual data makes it clear. In December, the core CPI year-over-year increase was 2.6%, although it hit a multi-year low, it still lags 0.6 percentage points behind the 2% target. Even more painful is that sticky inflation in services and rentals is still causing trouble; it can't be suppressed in the short term. Fed officials like Goolsbee have explicitly stated that the top priority now is to bring inflation thoroughly below 2%, and Schmidt has directly opposed any new round of rate cuts. The simple reason is — if inflation hasn't stabilized, rushing to cut rates is like lighting a match to a rebound in prices. Even the most hawkish Fed officials wouldn't be so foolish.

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LayerZeroEnjoyer

· 01-17 15:10

I've seen through it long ago; those who go all-in on rate cuts will have to cut losses. The Federal Reserve won't be soft this time. --- Inflation hasn't been suppressed yet, and they want to cut rates? What are they thinking? --- I'm telling you, that 5% probability is just not worth betting on. Asset allocation needs a complete overhaul. --- Service sector inflation is truly a tumor; it's really hard to fix in the short term. --- Goolsbee has already made it clear: now is the time to fight inflation, don't expect easing. --- Now I finally understand that high interest rates will be with us for a while. We have to accept it, everyone. --- 95% no interest? Then my investment strategy needs to be completely overturned and rebuilt. --- Just one question: how many people are still betting on a rate cut in January? Wake up, guys. --- A 0.6 percentage point difference in CPI doesn't sound like much, but this thing is sticky. Don't expect a quick fix. --- Schmidt has already opposed it, and you're still dreaming?

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DegenMcsleepless

· 01-17 10:15

The guys who bet everything and cut interest rates are probably kicking themselves now. What can you expect from a 5% chance? This is just a gambler's game.

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PerennialLeek

· 01-17 06:59

I already said not to play the "interest rate cut dream" a long time ago. Are you only realizing it now? The Fed's stance is so firm that there's no hope in the short term. --- There's a 95% probability of fixing the interest rate, this data couldn't be clearer. Are some still betting on a rate cut? --- The sticky inflation in the service sector is firmly stuck, and the Fed's logic isn't wrong; it's just that our asset allocation needs to be completely overhauled. --- Another round of "expectation disappointment" should wake people up. This time, the Fed is really determined. --- They want to cut rates before inflation drops below 2%. The Fed can't be that stupid; seeing through this early would have saved many from being cut. --- A 5% probability is truly incredible. Basically, the certainty of "no rate cut" is over 99%. --- Instead of waiting for the Fed's charity, it's better to recalculate your asset allocation. With such a long interest rate cycle, the game plan needs to change. --- Inflation in services and rentals is stuck, and even if the Fed wants to cut, there's nothing they can do—reality is this hardcore. --- Are those who are all-in on the rate cut expectation now in despair?

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gas_fee_therapist

· 01-16 03:52

The Federal Reserve really isn't going to loosen anymore this time, stop dreaming about rate cuts, everyone. I've seen through it long ago, those betting on rate cuts should now start buying other assets. Service sector inflation can't be overcome, and the Fed's stance will remain firm; don't expect any turnaround in the short term. Another round of asset reallocation is needed, it's tough. High interest rates for retirement are now certain, get used to it, everyone. CPI is still 0.6 percentage points away, how could the Fed possibly loosen now? Overthinking. Instead of waiting for rate cuts, think about how to survive in a high-interest-rate environment. With inflation so sticky, the Fed's shackles can't be unlocked; it's time to accept it. This time, we really need to hold high interest rates long-term, build mental resilience. How do friends who early bet on rate cuts feel now? Wake up.

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ForkTongue

· 01-16 03:50

The guys who are betting on rate cuts, it's time to wake up. This time, the Federal Reserve is really determined. --- Wait, inflation still has 0.6 percentage points to go, do you expect them to cut rates now? --- Service sector inflation is a stubborn case that can't be easily suppressed. The Fed's plans will have to change accordingly. --- If high interest rates could be easily reversed, the story of the previous "rate cut bull market" wouldn't have so many people buying in. --- The most painful part now is that I have to recalculate the entire asset allocation, and the original logic has to be completely overturned. --- Goolsby and Schmidt's firm stance indicates that the Fed has already unified its position internally. Stop guessing blindly. --- A 95% probability of remaining unchanged—that's basically saying "don't hold out hope." --- Sticky inflation in the service sector is really a tough problem; there's no short-term fix at all. --- The funds that previously all-in expected rate cuts should be feeling pretty uncomfortable now. Is it time to break even?

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0xSoulless

· 01-16 03:35

Brothers who are all-in on rate cuts, how are you feeling now? Hahaha. 95% staying put just tells you that the Federal Reserve has no intention of easing at all.

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SquidTeacher

· 01-16 03:35

I've long seen through it—Federal Reserve rate cuts are just hype. It's a bit late for those of you to wake up now.

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TokenDustCollector

· 01-16 03:29

The interest rate cut dream is shattered, this time the Federal Reserve is really determined Another round of betrayal, those betting on rate cuts should wake up Inflation stubbornly persists, the Fed would rather miss the mark than be soft-handed The 2% target is still 0.6 percentage points away, this hurdle isn't that easy to cross It was obvious long ago, high interest rates can't be changed in the short term, it's time to replan the allocation Service leasing inflation is too sticky, the Fed currently has no way to tackle it Instead of hoping for a rate cut, better to think about how to survive in a high interest rate environment This wave of face-slapping is really harsh, everyone needs to adjust their expectations

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