#代币空投与分配 Seeing this news about the Lighter airdrop, I was reminded of the recurring betting stories from those years. That whale lost $4,861 in the airdrop on the 29th, then turned to the 31st, and now is showing an unrealized loss of over ten thousand dollars, continuing to increase its FDV forecast—this logic is all too familiar to me.

This isn't the first time I've seen such a scenario. Remember the ICO frenzy of 2017? Back then, every project promised an airdrop, and each token distribution was filled with notions of "fairness." But what was the result? Most projects failed quickly, and only a few of the survivors truly followed through on their initial promises.

Lighter's situation warrants a closer look. From the available information, it's a Perp DEX project, and the founder even hinted at introducing Turing-complete zk circuits—technologically, it does seem to have some potential. But this isn't an era where good technology alone can sustain a token's value. Expectations around airdrop pricing, transparency of unlock schedules, and fairness in early participant weighting—these are the key factors that determine a project's long-term viability.

Honestly, the whale's rebalancing behavior does reflect market optimism about Lighter's prospects, but what I care more about are the risks hidden behind the activated FOMO emotions. History has shown that whenever large funds start "signal buying," it's often the beginning of retail investors taking the hit. The period before the airdrop hype peaks is always the most dangerous.

Rather than guessing what will happen on the 31st, it's better to ask yourself: can the fundamentals of this project support all your expectations for the airdrop? The answer isn't in market predictions but in your genuine judgment of the Perp DEX sector and this team's long-term competitiveness.