#Strategy加仓BTC January 16 Morning Thoughts

When the market is sideways, we can always design nearly perfect trading plans. Once the price approaches a key breakout level, the mindset tends to waver—fearing missing out on a surge, and fearing being trapped. Only after the dust settles do we realize that those worries are often unnecessary. This is the most common phenomenon in trading; everyone encounters it.

After this round of gains, bears need more patience to hold their views. Although bulls can see clear signals to buy, with solid support at the bottom trend line and strong rebounds at previous pullbacks, they are still stuck at resistance levels. Expectations are one thing, but everything depends on whether an "effective breakout" can be achieved. This Friday will be a critical moment—if the price cannot break above the previous high before the US market opens, the short-term trend is likely to fall back into consolidation and decline.

From a technical perspective, $BTC has been oscillating between 95,000 and 98,000 USD over the past two trading days, with obvious selling pressure above. On the hourly chart, the DIF and DEA lines are diverging downward, MACD bars remain negative, indicating a strong correction demand. RSI has fallen from overbought to around 52, suggesting short-term upward momentum is weakening. EMA7 and EMA30 are slightly declining after converging, with short-term support at around 94,500 USD.

Although bullish momentum on the daily chart is weakening and a death cross may appear if indicators turn, RSI remains in the neutral to slightly strong zone at around 60. The three moving averages (EMA7, EMA30, EMA120) maintain a bullish alignment, and the overall bullish trend remains intact. The trading strategy is still to buy on dips.

$BTC: Long positions in the 93,800-94,800 USD range, targeting 96,400-97,400 USD
$ETH: Long positions in the 3,230-3,270 USD range, targeting 3,350-3,390 USD