From ETH to BTC, what does this new bet of $69 million by the whale with a profit of $21 million mean?

On-Chain Whale “pension-usdt.eth” Recently Completed a Notable Strategy Shift in the Past Two Hours: After closing a profitable ETH long position with a gain of $740,000, it immediately opened a BTC position with 3x leverage. The current position size has reached $69 million, with an average entry price of $95,600. Based on its historical position habits, the final size of this position is expected to exceed $80 million. More notably, this whale is still actively increasing its holdings.

The Logic Behind the Large Trader’s Shift

Why Switch from ETH to BTC

The timing of this move is quite intriguing. Currently, BTC is around $95,682, up 5.38% over the past 7 days and 9.10% over the past 30 days. This whale has chosen to increase its bet during an upward trend in BTC rather than continue holding ETH, sending a clear signal: it is optimistic about BTC’s potential to rise at the current price levels.

From a risk management perspective, the actions of pension-usdt.eth are also very logical. It first completely closed its ETH long position to lock in profits, then re-entered a new position on a different asset. This “close first, open later” approach helps avoid the risks associated with holding multiple large positions simultaneously.

Who is this whale?

According to monitoring data, pension-usdt.eth is a typical swing trader rather than a long-term holder. Its characteristics are quite distinct:

• Low Leverage Strategy: Although this BTC position used 3x leverage, compared to the common 5-10x in the market, it is considered conservative
• Ultra-Short Cycle: Average holding time is only 23 hours, indicating it is engaged in precise swing trading rather than trend trading
• Strong Profitability: Since October, it has accumulated over $21 million in profits, demonstrating a high success rate
• Flexible Shifts: Its fund allocation from trading markets to yield-bearing markets shows it is optimizing its income structure

The Secret to Consistent Profits

The key to this whale’s sustained profitability lies in its execution strategy. It does not rely on guessing market direction but on precise entry and exit points combined with risk management.

The combination of low leverage and short cycles is particularly interesting. Low leverage allows it to withstand larger market fluctuations without liquidation, while short cycles enable quick capture of small market swings. With such a setup, as long as the win rate exceeds 50%, stable profits can be achieved. Given its accumulated profit of $21 million, its actual win rate should be significantly higher.

It is worth noting that recently, this whale has been transferring trading profits from Hyperliquid to yield markets like AAVE, with total lending reaching $26.71 million. This indicates it is diversifying its asset allocation—some funds are used for trading to generate excess returns, while others are placed in yield markets for stable income.

Market Significance

Large traders’ actions often reflect subtle market changes. pension-usdt.eth shifting from ETH to BTC and increasing its position to $69 million is a signal that should not be ignored.

From a market structure perspective, on-chain trading platforms like Hyperliquid are attracting more professional traders. Data shows Binance’s spot trading market share has fallen to 25%, the lowest since January 2021, while platforms like Hyperliquid are gaining market share due to better contracts, higher leverage, and on-chain execution advantages. The large-scale operations of this whale on Hyperliquid also reflect this shift to some extent.

Summary

The latest actions of pension-usdt.eth demonstrate typical features of professional traders: flexible strategy shifts, conservative risk management, and stable profitability. Its decision to switch from ETH to BTC and its position size of $69 million both indicate a bullish outlook on BTC’s short-term upward trend. While such large traders’ activities cannot directly predict market direction, their precise entry and exit points, along with consistent profitability, are indeed worth close attention from market participants. The key follow-up is to observe whether this position will ultimately exceed $80 million and at what price level it might take profits.