#比特币2026年行情展望 🎯 Power Struggle: The Federal Reserve's Independence Is Dividing

Recently, this series of actions has left many puzzled by Trump's changing stance. On one hand, he says "no plans to fire Powell," and on the other hand, he quietly arranges for "two Kevins" as backup, while hinting that "the final decision is still early."

This is not a sign of weakness. It is gradually shifting Powell's position from "absolute power" to "relative power"—appearing unchanged on the surface, while secretly weakening it. The operational space for the Fed's independence is being compressed in a more subtle and harder-to-detect manner.

📊 Data Reveals the Truth

An interesting phenomenon in the latest Beige Book: the so-called "moderate growth" largely stems from seasonal boosts during holiday consumption. Once seasonal factors fade, whether real growth momentum can be sustained remains uncertain.

Even more concerning is inflation. PPI data remains strong, indicating that the underlying driver of inflation—the cost-side pressures—has not yet subsided. Tariff costs are spreading across the US, which is not just a data point but a systemic economic disturbance.

The Fed's current situation is like being caught between two pincers: on the left, recession risks (daring not to tighten too aggressively); on the right, stubborn inflation (daring not to loosen too aggressively). Policy flexibility is nearly exhausted.

⚡ The Market's Greater Danger

In an environment where power intertwines and data is ambiguous, any seemingly positive signals could turn into traps for false optimism. Market participants are easily misled by short-term policy signals, ignoring the underlying divergence—while the economy appears stable on the surface, its core is splitting.

At this stage, only two hard indicators are truly worth watching: CPI inflation data and non-farm employment data. They cannot be glossed over by political rhetoric nor hidden by short-term manipulations. These two data points determine the Fed's true policy direction.

💡 The Divide Between Traditional Finance and Crypto

When central bank independence becomes a bargaining chip in power struggles, and the authenticity of economic data itself becomes subject to interpretation, the market will begin to reassess assets that are "trustless, permissionless, transparent, and tamper-proof."

The revaluation of crypto assets is no longer an option but is becoming an inevitable logic. As the trust foundation of traditional finance becomes fragile, the certainty of decentralization gains new pricing power.

🔮 What is your view on this situation?

Scenario A: Powell holds on until the end of his term, but his power has been hollowed out, and policy execution is severely impaired.
Scenario B: One of the "two Kevins" eventually takes office, facing a depleted policy space and long-standing market expectations.
Scenario C: Regardless of who takes the helm, the credit bottom of the old system has been reached, and the capital's demand for decentralized assets will become an irreversible trend.