#DeFi生态发展 Seeing the wave of prediction markets, my mind flashed back to the DeFi scene of 2015. Back then, everyone was debating what smart contracts could actually do, and projects like Maker and Compound were still building in basements. Now, prediction markets have quickly broken through with a daily trading volume of $2 billion, and the underlying logic is actually the same — as regulation shifts from suppression to understanding, and infrastructure moves from gray areas to compliance, the entire track is like being hit with an acceleration button.

Polymarket acquiring QCX, ICE investing $2 billion, Robinhood integrating Kalshi—these actions by major institutions tell us a familiar story: capital always senses the next financial infrastructure. The market expectation of $95.5 billion by 2035, with a 47% CAGR, sounds aggressive, doesn’t it? No. This growth rate has also appeared in early DeFi.

What’s truly worth reflecting on is the logic of the ecosystem composition. The system of trading terminals, data aggregation, and collateral applications — we’ve seen this in the evolution of Uniswap and Aave. The current position of prediction markets is like mid-2017 DeFi — many platforms, early stage of the track, and a nascent ecosystem. The difference is that this time, there’s a clearer regulatory path and more institutional capital.

History always rhymes. Those who caught the early rhythm of DeFi are now eyeing opportunities in prediction markets. Not because the concept is cool, but because this cyclical infrastructure migration is always a window for wealth redistribution.