2026-01-16 00:22:13

In our careers, we have seen too many investment decision mistakes. The most typical one is judging future potential based on current market performance.

Take the ride-hailing industry as an example. Many people look at Uber and Lyft's current market situation and jump to conclusions. But the real opportunities are often hidden in areas that seem "not yet mature" or "problematic" today.

This cognitive bias runs throughout the entire investment world. We are easily confused by the data in front of us and overlook the fact that the market itself is constantly evolving. The key is to understand what the market looks like now and what it could become in the future—these two are often very different.

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TokenDustCollector

· 01-19 00:20

Exactly right. Things that seem unprofitable now are often the gold mines. I've been fooled by current candlestick charts too many times, really. Uber's data looked bleak, but it completely changed the entire transportation industry. To be honest, most people won't even wait for the market to change. Early entrants and current entrants are entirely different stories. That's why Buffett says to be greedy when others are fearful—that's what he's talking about. When Bitcoin drops, it's the best time to look at potential projects, but unfortunately, no one can do that.

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TradFiRefugee

· 01-18 15:15

Things are bad right now, but change takes time... Just look at Uber's wave to understand There are really many people fooled by short-term data, it's time to wake up The market is like this now ≠ the market will always be like this, is it really hard to understand that Problems in projects often hide opportunities, it all depends on who can see far enough Many people invest just for quick money, never thinking about what it will be like in five years So, things that are denied by the current situation are actually the most worth paying attention to Really, cognitive gaps lead to differences in returns The market is changing, and your mind can't just stay stuck on current data

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SolidityNewbie

· 01-17 18:11

If I had known earlier, I wouldn't have listened to those who look at K-line charts, and I would have seized the best opportunity.

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ETH_Maxi_Taxi

· 01-16 13:15

I was just saying about Uber back then, how many people criticized it as having no future... And look at the result Now I understand that betting on tomorrow based on today's data, 99% of the time you'll lose money Web3 is the same, many projects now look very disappointing, who knows what will happen That's why I never follow the trend to chase hot topics; you need to see clearly where the market is headed Early entrants often seem the most foolish, but in the end, they are the ones laughing the loudest The gap between market perception and reality is always this big, and that's the real opportunity

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ProofOfNothing

· 01-16 00:52

That's right. The current price charts do not equal future return curves. Very few people understand this principle. People always buy high and sell low, criticizing poor projects as having no prospects, and as a result, missing out on dark horses. There were also people calling Uber dead back then. And now? The difference is whether you can see through the fog. Most people simply can't do it. So I usually go against the crowd. When everyone is pessimistic, that's the real opportunity.

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FancyResearchLab

· 01-16 00:52

You're just talking about past tense cases to fool people again. When Uber was popular, many people also lost money. Isn't this just armchair strategizing? How many people truly dare to go all-in on projects that "seem problematic"? In theory, it should be feasible, but in practice, it's a different story. I've experienced quite a few in DeFi over the past few years. Those still chasing the hot trends are basically just serving as bagholders for the next wave.

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ServantOfSatoshi

· 01-16 00:35

Really, those who judge based on current performance have all regretted it Just because the market is bad now doesn't mean it will be bad in the future. That's a valid point Uber was also criticized back then. And now? Current data can be the most deceptive. We've all fallen into that trap Problematic girls are often the next dark horse. That's the difference

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BrokenYield

· 01-16 00:33

nah this is just survivorship bias dressed up as market wisdom. watched enough protocols implode thinking they were "undervalued" to know better lmao

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ZenMiner

· 01-16 00:32

Judging by the current situation, the same pattern applies in the crypto world. Many people who criticized Bitcoin back then are now regretting it to death.

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DegenApeSurfer

· 01-16 00:25

That's why retail investors always buy high and sell low. When they see losses now, they run away. No one wants to think about what will happen five years from now.

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