At the beginning of 2026, XRP's market performance showed a stark contrast. From the Asian market perspective, the XRP reserves on South Korea's two major exchanges, Upbit and Bithumb, experienced a significant decline, forming an interesting correlation with the 560% surge cycle at the end of 2024—continuous reduction signals that should not be ignored.

However, on-chain data tells a different story. Whale transaction volume on the XRP Ledger recently hit a three-month high, with 2,802 transactions in a single day, indicating that large investors and institutional players are actively positioning themselves.

The turning point appears to be in the US spot XRP ETF. Since its launch on January 7, it has experienced its first net outflow, with a daily capital outflow of $40.8 million, showing a clear cooling of institutional enthusiasm. When these data points are combined, the market sentiment's complexity becomes evident—retail and small investors may be reducing their holdings on rallies, while the willingness of large institutions to enter is also waning, adding many variables to XRP's subsequent performance.