The compliance storm in the prediction market is heating up. Tarek Mansour, the head of Kalshi, recently expressed support for the proposed bill by US Congressman Ritchie Torres to ban insider trading in prediction markets. This stance is quite interesting—it indicates that leading industry platforms have already begun to proactively embrace regulatory frameworks.

It is reported that Kalshi has long implemented restrictions in accordance with the standards of the NYSE and NASDAQ. But this does not mean that the entire sector is the same. What is the reality? Many offshore, unregulated prediction market platforms still operate as usual, and this is the core issue.

Some time ago, an incident occurred on Polymarket: an account profited about $400,000 by betting on the situation in Venezuela’s presidency, which then sparked public outrage and continuous questions about insider trading. This case hit a nerve—without clear regulatory rules and enforcement mechanisms, the credibility of platforms and the fairness of markets will be seriously questioned. It seems that for prediction markets to truly go far, the compliance threshold must be crossed.