2026-01-08 07:25:29

Looking back at this wave of market movement, during the period when Bitcoin surged from 70,000 to 120,000, the entire market was actually betting on the same story—the Fed's expected rate cuts in the second half of the year. But once the rate cuts actually arrived, big funds started quietly reducing their positions. On the surface, they stabilized the price to make retail investors think "this time is really different," while secretly offloading continuously.

Now that the price has returned to around 90,000, in my understanding, this is just a normal correction in the mid-stage of the bear market, not the true bottom. Look at the logic across various sectors—new highs in US stocks, AI and storage concepts booming, A-shares also hitting new highs. The market generally expects cryptocurrencies to catch up and fill the gap, and whales and institutions are indeed bottom-fishing.

But the reality is, the sentiment to catch up hasn't really ignited. Instead, many voices are hyping the AI bubble about to burst and predicting a crash in US stocks. Large funds seem to be deploying hedges against black swan events globally. From this perspective, the logic of continued decline actually makes more sense.

So, the current strategy is to stay on the sidelines. While following the overall trend, it’s still advisable to short on rallies. The real rebound could start the moment a black swan lands.

BTC-0,09%

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metaverse_hermit

· 01-09 20:16

Interest rate cuts come with selling off instead, this tactic is truly clever, retail investors are always left to catch the final ball

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MEVictim

· 01-09 14:07

The tactics of large capital outflows are really clever. When interest rates are cut, it actually causes a sell-off, and retail investors still foolishly buy in.

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ShibaMillionairen't

· 01-09 01:33

Everyone is waiting for the rebound, but the big funds have already run away. I've seen this trick many times. --- Before the black swan lands, don't expect any rebound. --- Waiting around 90,000; not taking action is the safest, really. --- Whales are bottom fishing? I think they're eating retail investors' stop-loss orders, haha. --- Instead of guessing the bottom, better to focus on major events. Only when the black swan arrives will there be a show. --- Surface stability in price but secretly unloading; I give this move a full score. --- The lack of enthusiasm for a rebound indicates a big problem. Continuing to fall is not surprising. --- It's reliable to short on rallies; this is how you should play in the mid-stage of a bear market. --- US stocks' AI hits new highs again, but why is the crypto market still stuck in place... --- Big funds are globally deploying to hedge against black swans, while retail investors are still dreaming of a rebound—there's a huge gap.

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WalletDivorcer

· 01-08 07:53

It's the same old trick, big funds cycle through another round of profit-taking By the time the black swan truly hits, retail investors will have been cleaned out Waiting and watching now is indeed the safest; I'm also waiting The AI bubble feels like it's bound to burst sooner or later I missed the 120,000 wave, and I'm glad The fact that the rebound enthusiasm hasn't ignited means what? It means some people are still not out of their positions Shorting on rallies is correct, but you must maintain your mindset

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AirDropMissed

· 01-08 07:50

Interest rate cuts lead to selling instead, this trick is really clever... Big funds are just this disgusting

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SigmaBrain

· 01-08 07:38

Bro, isn't this just the old trick of cutting leeks, just a different disguise? This is the tactic big funds use; retail investors are always a step behind. By the time you react, they've already run away. Those still daring to buy the dip now have a gambler's mentality. You really have to wait for a black swan. If the 90,000 level doesn't break, I really don't see the bullish case. Interest rate cuts and positive news can still cause sell-offs; what else can save this market? Just wait and see. Don't be fooled by the illusion of a rebound.

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FOMOSapien

· 01-08 07:34

Rate cuts are coming, but instead of rallying, the market is crashing. This tactic is truly brilliant; retail investors will never keep up with the big players' rhythm. I am a firm bull, but this logic really doesn't hold up. Hedging against black swan events is a move that hurts too much. Waiting at the 90,000 level is the most comfortable; let's see what happens when the black swan lands. The lack of a rebound sentiment is a signal; it's safer to short. While the US stock market hits new highs, the crypto market is still falling, indicating that funds are really fleeing. Mid-cycle bear market adjustment? I think there's an 80-90% chance we'll see another round of lows. People who are optimistic about a rebound are too naive; big funds have no intention of letting you make money.

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HashBard

· 01-08 07:33

nah this reads like the classic "everyone's buying the dip but actually they're not" narrative... whales playing 4d chess while we're still figuring out checkers lol. the whole "black swan hedge" angle is giving major copium energy tbh, feels like we're just rotating through different capitulation stories every quarter

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