36-day record broken: XRP ETF experiences a net outflow of $41 million for the first time, is this profit-taking or a trend reversal?

U.S. Spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Experiences Key Turning Point. According to the latest data, this type of product has seen its first single-day net outflow since launch, with five U.S. spot XRP ETFs totaling a net outflow of approximately $40.8 million, ending a 36-day streak of “zero outflow.” This shift indicates a phase change in market sentiment, but analysts point out that it does not necessarily signal a long-term trend reversal.

Details of ETF Outflows

Uneven Distribution of Outflows

Data shows that the recent outflow was mainly concentrated in the TOXR launched by 21Shares, with a single-day net outflow of $47.25 million. Meanwhile, Canary, Bitwise, and Grayscale’s XRP ETFs recorded a combined small net inflow of about $2 million, creating a clear divergence.

In terms of cumulative scale, although this outflow broke the zero outflow record, its size remains limited. Since Canary’s XRPC listing on November 13, 2024, XRP ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $1.25 billion, and the single-day outflow this time accounts for less than 3% of that total, reflecting overall market stability.

Phase Adjustment in Market Sentiment

According to Rachael Lucas, a cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets, XRP rapidly rose from $1.8 to $2.4 within a week, and combined with a broader crypto market correction, triggered some profit-taking. Such phenomena are common during quick asset appreciation and subsequent adjustments.

It is also important to note that this outflow is not unique to XRP ETFs. The total net outflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on the same day reached $486 million, with Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT experiencing outflows of $247.6 million and $130 million respectively. Ethereum ETFs also faced pressure, with a single-day net outflow of $98.5 million, including Grayscale’s ETHE with a outflow of $52 million. This indicates that capital outflows are a market-wide phenomenon rather than specific to XRP.

Fundamentals Remain Resilient

On-Chain Data Supports Resilience

Despite the outflows, the fundamental data supporting XRP remains strong. According to Rachael Lucas, on-chain data shows that exchange reserves are still at historic lows, and trading volume remains high, indicating that XRP’s medium-term fundamentals are still resilient.

This on-chain performance aligns with increased market participation, suggesting that institutional and retail interest in XRP has not waned due to short-term adjustments.

Regulatory Status Confirmed

It is noteworthy that Ripple executives recently ended speculation regarding XRP’s regulatory status, emphasizing that XRP has been legally established as a non-security digital asset through a landmark court ruling in the U.S. This legal clarity provides a long-term institutional safeguard for XRP’s development.

Normal Market Rebalancing

Adjustment of Capital Flows

Presto Research analyst Min Jung pointed out that compared to stocks, crypto assets have recently underperformed, and some capital is flowing back into traditional risk assets. This trend is reflected in price fluctuations and ETF capital flows.

From this perspective, the changes in XRP ETF funds are more a result of market rebalancing rather than a negative outlook on its long-term prospects. Such cyclical capital adjustments are normal in mature markets and may even create conditions for subsequent capital re-entry.

Future Outlook

Key Price Levels

According to Rachael Lucas, if ETF capital shifts back to net inflows, XRP price could again test the $3 level. Currently, XRP is around $2.11, with about 42% upside potential to reach that target.

Technically, XRP has completed a golden cross against Bitcoin on the 3-hour chart, with the 50-period moving average crossing above the 200-period moving average for the first time since 2026, signaling a short-term bullish trend.

Window for Market Sentiment Shift

Although short-term adjustments are possible, the market remains optimistic about XRP’s medium-term outlook. The limited scale of the outflow and the strong fundamentals suggest that this may be a phase of market reassessment rather than a trend reversal.

Summary

While the first net outflow from XRP ETF broke a 36-day streak of zero outflows, the scale, reasons, and market context suggest this is more a phase of profit-taking and rebalancing rather than a long-term trend change. Strong on-chain data, confirmed legal status, and limited outflow size support the view that XRP’s fundamentals remain resilient. After a short-term correction, if capital flows back in, testing the $3 mark remains highly probable. The key is to distinguish between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, avoiding being misled by temporary capital movements.