The medium-term bullish pattern for gold remains unchanged. Recently, the factors influencing gold prices are still the usual suspects—Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical situations, and capital flows. Let’s analyze them one by one.

**What about the Federal Reserve?**

The current policy stance is a typical "short-term stability, long-term easing." There is a 95% probability of maintaining interest rates in January, mainly because the core PCE has remained stable at 2.8% for three consecutive months. Although inflation has not yet reached the Fed’s 2% target, it has entered a moderate and controllable range. Powell has consistently emphasized "data dependence," meaning economic performance determines policy direction.

However, it is worth noting that there were three dissenting votes at the December meeting— the highest since 2019. This indicates a clear disagreement within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts. Future policy adjustments are expected to be more cautious and gradual.

In the short term, initial jobless claims and non-farm payroll data are two key indicators. Weak data increases expectations of rate cuts, which lowers actual interest rates and benefits gold. Strong data might cause a short-term correction, but the overall easing trend for the year remains intact, with limited downside.

**Geopolitical risks are still present**

The Middle East situation has always been a major source of gold’s safe-haven premium. Protests in Iran have spread to 92 cities, government suppression is escalating but not yet subdued, and the risk of external intervention is rising. This will continue to support gold prices in the short term.

The Russia-Ukraine situation is somewhat different. Zelensky has suggested that the conflict could end in the first half of 2026, increasing the likelihood of a political resolution. However, Russia is still counterattacking, indicating that the conflict is far from over. Overall, the driving force behind gold related to Russia-Ukraine has shifted from strong support to weak support, mainly serving as an emotional buffer.

**Changes in capital flows**

Central bank gold purchases remain a medium- to long-term support. Considering these factors collectively, the bullish pattern for gold is unlikely to change in the short term.