Recently, I saw a well-known Wall Street analyst's outlook for the new year's trend, and his perspective is worth pondering. A broad rally at the start of the year is a good sign, but there may be a "false bear market" test around mid-year, followed by a V-shaped reversal, with the S&P pushing above 7700+, and the crypto market is unlikely to be absent.

Macro calls can only give us a direction. The real determinants of price movement are on-chain data and where the funds are flowing. My judgment resonates with that expert: this year is likely to follow a "deep squat and then jump" rhythm. But the key is how deep to squat and when to jump—relying solely on intuition won't cut it.

**Why squat? The data is speaking**

Recently, Bitcoin whales (addresses holding over 1000 BTC) have shown signs of reducing holdings amid volatility, with some profit-taking flowing into exchanges. This isn't a large-scale exit, but it reflects that some big funds are engaging in swing trading or seeking safe havens.

Additionally, keep an eye on the market greed index. If, due to Federal Reserve policy statements or US stock adjustments, the index rapidly spikes to an "extreme greed" level, then the risk of a short-term correction should raise alert. The funds chasing the high are most likely to flee in panic.

**Why dare to say "jump"? The chips are here**

The real accumulation is happening in the shadows. Don't just watch the whales' small moves; the holdings of long-term holders remain high. The "ballast" of the major trend hasn't moved, indicating core confidence remains intact.

The fund flow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is a key window for observation. As long as there isn't sustained, large-scale net outflow, institutional buy-in is supporting the market. During this correction phase, the capacity of funds to absorb the dip still exists.

Don't forget that the supply tightening effect after the halving will gradually unfold. Every time the market screams "bear," look at the miners' selling pressure and the new circulating supply—fundamentals are still in play.

**Trading ideas (for reference only)**

Don't get carried away by the broad rally at the start of the year; keep some room in your positions. If a panic correction of 15%-20% really occurs mid-year, especially affecting mainstream coins and hot altcoins, don't follow the bearish sentiment—this is likely the best opportunity for the year's layout. I will focus on on-chain support levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as reversal signals in ETF fund flows.

In simple terms, this year's rhythm is likely to be: buildup at the start → mid-year test → acceleration in the second half. Be prepared and wait for the opportunity.