A sufficiently bold plan is taking shape. According to multiple sources, the United States is planning a multi-year strategy—deeply involving itself in Venezuela's oil industry to anchor international oil prices around $50 per barrel. This figure is not chosen arbitrarily; it is the break-even point for global shale oil extraction. Once oil prices hover around this level for an extended period, the marginal capacity expansion of the entire industry will slow down, and capital expenditure will be forced to be reshuffled.

What is even more noteworthy is the evolution of operational tactics. The traditional approach is nothing more than buying oil or easing sanctions, but this time, the play is more aggressive—targeting the operational chain of Venezuela's state oil company PdVSA directly. The plan includes gaining substantial control over it, taking over most of its crude oil sales, and even implementing these through existing joint ventures with energy giants like Chevron. Once the production, marketing, and distribution systems are firmly in control, the issue shifts from how much is produced to where the crude oil flows and at what pace. This transforms energy from a commodity into a strategic tool that can be adjusted.

The underlying logic is quite transparent: low oil prices directly ease inflation and garner public support; controlling the supply chain's narrative enhances geopolitical competition; and American companies involved stand to profit significantly from capacity restoration, trade, and transportation segments. However, the practical hurdles are substantial—restoring Venezuela's production to a competitive level requires not only time but also massive capital investment. Fluctuations in global oil demand and strategic adjustments by OPEC+ could also disrupt the entire plan.