#以太坊大户持仓变化 What does the 1-hour Ethereum chart's technical pattern reveal?

Looking at the recent price movements, ETH has already shown a typical weak structure. The candlesticks have been under long-term pressure from the moving average system, with rebound strength always insufficient and lacking a decent upward breakout. More importantly, the MACD indicator below—green bars gradually rising, with the fast and slow lines continuing to diverge downward below the zero line—this combination of signals is unlikely to favor the bulls.

What stage is the market currently in? Simply put: the technical outlook is bearish.

But the key point is—chasing shorts directly is a rookie move. True trading should follow the rhythm. After a price decline, there is always a rebound process, just like a ball bouncing on the ground. That rebound is precisely the best window for us to enter.

**Trading Strategy:**

Wait for ETH to rebound to around the 3100 level before entering a short position. This price level is not chosen arbitrarily—it is an important support-turned-resistance level from previous periods, serving as a technical retest. Establishing a short position here makes logical sense.

Set the stop-loss above 3150. With the risk boundary clear, the profit potential below is relatively ample. The first target is 3050, and the second target directly at the 3000 mark. From a risk-reward perspective, this setup is worth executing.

**Why choose a rebound rather than chasing shorts?**

A rebound in a downtrend is essentially a "high-probability signal confirmation." It eliminates the risk of bottom-fishing and provides a clear exit reference for short positions. Instead of impulsively opening a position during a rapid decline, it’s better to wait for a confirmation signal before acting. This is a consensus after experiencing multiple bull and bear cycles—the market is not short of opportunities, but of patience and discipline.

Many people can’t resist chasing longs at the sight of a rebound, but this is the most common psychological trap in trading. In a bearish trend, you should interpret a rebound as an opportunity to add to your shorts, not as a buy signal at the top.

**Current situation:**

Whether the market will give this rebound opportunity remains uncertain. If ETH breaks down directly without a rebound, we wait for the next higher-confidence signal before acting. Opportunities in crypto trading are frequent; the key is not to trade just for the sake of trading. Maintaining this selectivity will help you survive better in the long run.

The technical picture is clear, and the key levels are marked. Now, it’s just a matter of waiting for the market to cooperate.