2026-01-08 05:28:39

The most eye-catching event in the crypto world at the start of 2026 is still DOGE's recent rally. From the market shock at the beginning of January when 100,000 traders got liquidated, to the nearly 20% rebound over the following 7 days, this trend has definitely set the rhythm. But what truly excites veteran players is that a key technical indicator has triggered again—this time, is it a trap to lure in buyers, or a genuine bullish signal?

The focus of this rally is on the CVDD indicator. Simply put, it reflects the historical accumulation of on-chain holdings—by tracking the activity of long-term holders, it helps determine whether the current price is undervalued. Every time this indicator triggers a specific signal, the market often reacts noticeably.

Looking at DOGE's historical performance reveals the pattern. During the March 2024 rally, the price started at $0.08 and surged to $0.32, a fourfold increase driven by similar signals. Going further back to the bottom of the 2023 bear market, the same indicator signal appeared, leading to a rebound of over 300%.

The question now is: how reliable is this signal this time? Based on past successful cases, such indicators have been quite accurate at identifying bottoms. However, the crypto market is never short of black swan events, and no single indicator should be relied upon alone. True trading decisions need to consider multiple factors. The key is to understand whether current market sentiment and fundamentals truly support this rebound turning into a sustainable upward trend.

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Anon32942

· 01-08 05:56

Mostly just hype, CVDD has been quite accurate historically, but with the market so competitive now, I really don't dare to bet on a single indicator.

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SchrodingerGas

· 01-08 05:55

Have you counted the number of times the CVDD indicator failed? The historical review looks good, but that's just survivor bias.

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DoomCanister

· 01-08 05:50

The probability of a trap is actually higher; history will repeat itself but not exactly the same way. --- CVDD is essentially a post-hoc analysis; who can rely on it to make money at critical moments? --- A liquidation of 100,000 people is the real signal; only when retail investors are wiped out can the market rise. --- Here we go again, every time claiming to use multi-dimensional judgment, but isn't it just gambling? --- A 300% rebound sounds great, but that was at the bottom of the bear market. Can the current position be the same? --- I just want to know if this time it can break 0.4; everything else is just talk. --- On-chain data looks good, but it can't compare to a tweet from Elon Musk. --- DOGE is always a faith coin; indicators are just clouds. --- It's just a rebound; don't hype it as a bull market. Wait until it breaks new highs to talk. --- Black swan events have long become commonplace; how accurate are the indicators anyway?

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OvertimeSquid

· 01-08 05:48

It's another CVDD signal. Is this time really different? The possibility of a trap is still quite high, after all, the rebound was so strong after 100,000 liquidations... There's 300% historical data right there, but I still feel a bit anxious haha. Wait, why do we always rely on a single indicator for decision-making? Isn't that gambling? Actually, I think this wave is just the market maker playing new tricks again. I missed the wave from 0.08 to 0.32 on DOGE, and now I'm even more hesitant. Reliable indicators are reliable, but the key is when the black swan will arrive... Forget it, let's just set some points first. Anyway, I won't lose much.

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TommyTeacher

· 01-08 05:47

Is it a trap or a real bull? It depends on whether the fundamentals are in sync; relying on a single indicator is unreliable.

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ThreeHornBlasts

· 01-08 05:35

Damn, CVDD has triggered again? I missed the last wave in March, now I feel a bit anxious. DOGE's rhythm is indeed on point, but to be honest, there have been too many false signals, so we still need to look at the fundamentals. A 300% rebound sounds great, but can it be replicated this time? The atmosphere feels different. Ten thousand people liquidated, I just want to ask who the hell still dares to go all in. The key is to wait for confirmation; I don't trust single indicators, brother. Now jumping in just to bet on market sentiment without it collapsing, in plain words, it's gambling. The term "black swan" is heard too often in the crypto circle; there's no psychological expectation left, haha. Rebounds are usually predictable, but whether they can sustain is the real question. No matter how accurate CVDD is, it can't withstand a disruptive news event. I think there's a chance this wave, but trading volume needs to catch up. It's another round of guessing market psychology based on indicators, I'm tired.

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