Trump's recent remarks targeting U.S. defense contractors have caused market turbulence. He criticized these companies for focusing only on dividends and stock buybacks, refusing to invest in production equipment, and explicitly warned that this approach needs to change.

This is not just a defense sector issue. The core logic of policy is clear—ban dividends and stock buybacks, control executive compensation, and enforce modernization investments. In plain terms, it’s about shifting corporate goals from "maximizing shareholder returns" to "maximizing capacity delivery." The long-standing "financialization" approach in the defense industry will need adjustment. His focus on the defense sector makes sense: this industry relies on government contracts, which are large and leverage-rich.

The market immediately responded. Yesterday, the Dow Jones fell 1.03%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.33%. Why? Because the high yields in the U.S. stock market are largely built on corporate financial maneuvers—massive buybacks, dividends, and financing arbitrage. If this route is blocked, capital will have to reconsider its direction, and stock prices will face pressure. This trend could extend to infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, utilities, and any sector where the government holds large orders. The foundation of the long-term U.S. bull market may be shaken.

A deeper issue lies in America’s industrial dilemma. The profit logic of financial capital and industrial capital is fundamentally different: financial capital relies on leverage and additive strategies, while industrial capital depends on revenue and cost control. Excessive financialization causes companies to prioritize cash distribution to shareholders over R&D and production, ultimately leading to decline. Currently, the U.S. industrial system is incomplete, relying on financial operations and global procurement to sustain large enterprises. Once anti-financialization policies are implemented, capabilities in financing, procurement, and supply chain integration will be limited—this is a major problem.

Looking at how capital will move from 2026 to 2030: smart money will flow into companies with "minimal friction." These companies either control power (core infrastructure, defense, strategic resources), control resources (scarce resources + stable delivery capacity), or control technology (monopolistic, irreplaceable). Among these, resource-based companies are the easiest to judge and most likely to meet capital expectations.

A quick look at precious metals: U.S. ADP data missed expectations, and the January rate cut expectations increased. Gold and silver saw some adjustments last night but not enough. Ideally, gold should retrace to 4300 and silver to 70 for a healthier state; there’s still some distance. Going forward, watch whether BCOM rebalancing can catalyze further movement. In terms of operations, it’s best to keep some powder dry for cheaper opportunities.