2026-01-08 05:24:17

A new report from the U.S. budget office highlights how stricter immigration policies and an aging population are creating headwinds for economic expansion. The administration's approach to limiting immigration inflows coincides with demographic challenges—fewer working-age citizens relative to retirees—painting a less optimistic picture for GDP growth projections.

These structural shifts matter. Immigration has historically boosted labor supply and consumer spending, while an older demographic profile typically means reduced workforce participation. Combined, they're expected to measurably slow near-term and long-term growth trajectories.

For investors tracking macroeconomic fundamentals, this signals potential shifts in inflation dynamics, labor costs, and asset valuations. The implications ripple across risk assets, including equities and crypto markets that remain sensitive to broader economic cycles.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

19 Likes

Reward
19
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

LightningAllInHero

· 01-11 03:48

Here we go again, does the US still want to stubbornly hold on? Cutting immigration + aging population, this combo can really be a double-edged sword. No, are they really counting on grandpas and grandmas to work? GDP growth rate is definitely going down. So is crypto the export? When inflation gets out of control, the crypto world goes crazy. How clever is this move, adding difficulty to oneself. I bet five bucks that next year they will relax immigration policies again, and the backlash will come quickly.

View OriginalReply0

CommunitySlacker

· 01-11 01:37

Oh my, America is digging its own grave... restricting immigration while facing aging population, a double blow that directly drags down the economy. An aging society is so scary; with fewer working-age people, who will pay taxes? Now the crypto world is likely to follow suit, as economic downturns wipe out all risk assets. By the way, can restricting immigration really solve the problem? It seems more like a suicidal decision. The US GDP growth rate is about to break, and our crypto assets are probably going to decline. I've been saying for a long time that the population issue is a ticking time bomb, and now it's been triggered.

View OriginalReply0

CoinBasedThinking

· 01-10 14:04

Now the United States also has to face a population crisis, with policy fragmentation and aging population hitting double... --- No wonder BTC hasn't shown much movement recently; the macro fundamentals are indeed deteriorating. --- In simple terms, no one is working or consuming, and rising inflation will inevitably shrink asset valuations. --- Immigration bans lead to soaring labor costs; this logic doesn't hold up... --- In the long run, the US economic growth rate is indeed worrying, and the crypto market can't escape. --- Oh my, both population and policy issues—are risk assets about to cool off? --- GDP growth slowdown is highly likely; should I reduce my positions in advance...

View OriginalReply0

Gm_Gn_Merchant

· 01-08 17:52

Damn, the US is shooting itself in the foot again. Restricting immigration and aging population—this economic growth rate is probably doomed. With declining birth rates and tighter policies, can the crypto market still have a bull run... Honestly, it's a bit uncertain. Aging society + labor shortages = runaway inflation? Let's see who takes the hit then. America's own doing; printing money won't save it. Crypto might be the last safe haven in this wave. Valuations are about to be reshuffled. This time, it really depends on economic data to determine the outcome. Immigration restrictions are stifling growth, workers are getting older—how can growth continue... BTC is set to rise. Economic recession warnings are at full blast; the crypto market is bound to explode. The problem is, Europe is aging too. If the whole world is in trouble, what will happen to BTC... Restrictive immigration policies are self-destructive—short-term benefits but long-term social death. Once the demographic dividend is gone, there’s no growth. This is truly a macro-level bearish signal. It's been obvious for a while that the US economy is on a downward slope; only now are the officials starting to admit it.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeSobber

· 01-08 05:53

Well... America is self-destructing by restricting immigration and still expecting economic growth? Laughable. --- Aging + fewer immigrants = economic disaster, this math problem is too simple. --- Wait, isn't this implying that crypto will fall... my positions. --- Wow, the macro situation is so bad, no wonder risk assets have been volatile lately. --- Tightening immigration policies cause the economy to wheeze, this is heading for a hard landing. --- Crypto follows macro cycles; looking at it now, the bull market might cool off for a while. --- Rising labor costs → inflation → asset bubble burst, a chain reaction is coming. --- Tightening immigration policies is truly a suicidal decision; how can an aging society sustain the economy? --- Although I said a lot, the core issue is that the US economic growth rate is about to turn downward. --- A decline in consumer spending is the real killer; the crypto market is going to fall.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidatedTwice

· 01-08 05:51

Bro, it looks like sub is really going to fail now. To put it nicely, it's called a "structural challenge," but in reality, there's no economic momentum left. The Federal Reserve's move has really shot itself in the foot. Cryptos are falling together, it's been obvious for a while. This logical chain seems even more fragile than BTC. But on the other hand, what's the positive for the bears?

View OriginalReply0

HallucinationGrower

· 01-08 05:43

Now sub really has to shrink, if no one works, who will take over? --- The US is digging its own grave—immigration restrictions combined with aging population, economic growth is being forcibly pushed down. --- So, the crypto market is linked to macroeconomic fate. This wave of correction has been foreseeable for a long time. --- Labor force shrinking → consumption shrinking → inflationary pressure → asset revaluation, a full chain, everyone. --- Policy contradictions—on one hand afraid of immigration, on the other needing new blood to fill gaps. This game is really falling apart. --- I can't understand the logic of American politicians—restrict immigration but still want to maintain growth. Aren't they setting a trap for themselves? --- Aging will only get worse. Let's wait and see how they handle it later. --- I have a premonition that the crypto market is going to fall; with the economic fundamentals rotten, no risk assets will escape unscathed.

View OriginalReply0

PrivacyMaximalist

· 01-08 05:41

Damn, is the US tightening the noose on itself? Immigration restrictions + aging population, GDP growth is cracking apart. Once the population dividend is gone, what will it rely on? The crypto world is about to follow the big recession. That's why I've always said, macro fundamentals are the real killer, much more reliable than technical analysis. Wait, does this mean the Federal Reserve is about to cause trouble again? Inflation, valuation, these things need to be re-priced. No wonder recent capital markets have been feeling tense; it turns out they are waiting for this wave of structural adjustment. A country actively shutting down its economic engine—how twisted is that? When crypto prices move with stocks, I knew a major event was coming. Now it seems we've found the source. Basically, it's because people don't have enough money to spend; there's no consumption, and the foundation for economic growth is gone. This time, we really need to reassess the entire crypto asset allocation. Risk assets are about to suffer across the board.

View OriginalReply0

PensionDestroyer

· 01-08 05:33

Damn it, the US is really courting death here. Restricting immigration and still expecting growth? That's hilarious. The immigration dividend is disappearing, and the crypto market is the first to feel it. Now coins are even cheaper. Blame it on the aging population; the birth rate should have been headline news long ago. With economic slowdown and deflation expectations, is USDT still attractive in your hands? As GDP growth slows down and risk assets crash, I am optimistic about this decline. Inflation is highly unpredictable; higher labor costs mean lower consumption. How can crypto remain unaffected? Basically, it's a long-term recession expectation. Whether to buy the dip now or sell the top depends on each individual. With declining capital returns, everyone is looking for an exit. Will the coins be hammered down?

View OriginalReply0

ImpermanentLossFan

· 01-08 05:32

Now it really needs to slow down. The pressure on US economic growth is enormous. Aging population plus immigration restrictions? This combination will also cause the crypto market to shake. Once inflation expectations change, asset valuations need to be recalculated. It's hard to predict how coin prices will move at that time. Rising labor costs but decreasing consumer purchasing power—economic cycles are truly interconnected. I've long anticipated that with such poor macro fundamentals, no good news will be seen in the short term. How long will this wave of structural change last? Could the impact be even greater than expected?

View OriginalReply0