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Recently, gold experienced a correction, and many people started to get restless, asking whether to switch to short positions or if a top has been reached. But from my perspective, this move looks more like a shakeout at high levels rather than a trend reversal.
From a technical logic standpoint, gold surged from around 4300 on January 5th straight up to near 4500, with a fast and fierce pace. It would only be problematic if it failed to adjust at this critical juncture. Currently, the price is oscillating between 4430 and 4440, which still indicates a solid footing above 4400, with a complete structure.
How did this correction come about? To put it simply, it’s not that the market suddenly turned bearish on gold, but rather a passive sell-off caused by index rebalancing. Some funds had to sell at this point in time—this is a "technical" sell-off, and the main players haven't collectively run away. You can see that every time gold is pushed near 4400, someone immediately steps in to buy, which explains the situation.
Looking at the broader support factors for gold—central banks are still buying, the Fed's rate cut expectations remain, and geopolitical tensions haven't eased. These issues can't be resolved in a day, so gold is unlikely to truly reverse its trend. I won't chase short positions below 4400.
From a technical perspective, it's simple: 4400 is the critical level—if it doesn't break, the bulls are still adjusting; above 4480-4500 is a resistance zone—if it doesn't break through, treat it as consolidation, and don't chase the highs.
The trading approach is straightforward: don't chase highs, stay calm, and wait for a pullback to re-enter. Major gold positions can be accumulated in the 4410-4420 range, with a stop-loss at 4395. First target is 4460-4480; once stabilized, aim for 4500. If 4400 really breaks, just watch quietly—don't fight it hard, wait for the next opportunity.
Honestly, the market is meant to be traded, not guessed at the top. Until key levels are broken, I remain bullish.