Bitcoin Breaks 4-Year Cycle for the First Time in 14 Years

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency in the world, ended Q4 2025 with a nearly 28% decline, but the bigger story is not just about the price. For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin did not follow its famous four-year cycle, surprising both traders and long-term holders. As 2026 begins, the accumulation by large investors, closely watched price movements, and market changes are shaping what will happen next. Bitcoin Breaks 4-Year Cycle After 14 Years For over a decade, Bitcoin has moved in a familiar rhythm. The year of a halving event usually ends with an upward trend, the following year sees even stronger gains, and then a major peak followed by a sharp correction. This pattern has been clearly demonstrated in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles. That rhythm changed in the most recent cycle. While 2024, the year of the halving, ended strongly, 2025 ended with a red candle. This marks the first time Bitcoin has declined in the year following a halving event.

This change does not automatically signal weakness. Instead, it indicates a maturing market. With the participation of institutional investors, spot ETF funds, and more abundant liquidity, Bitcoin is less volatile due to halving excitement and more influenced by macroeconomic conditions. Major Investors (Whales) Are Buying Bitcoin Again As 2026 begins, on-chain data is sending an important signal. Large Bitcoin holders, often called “whales,” are gradually increasing their holdings after several weeks of decline. Data shared by cryptocurrency trader Crypto Rover shows that wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have started increasing their balances. The 30-day trend has reversed upward, indicating new accumulation at current levels.

At the same time, Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decrease. When cryptocurrencies are withdrawn from exchanges, it usually means holders plan to keep rather than sell, reducing the available supply on the market. In previous cycles, this situation often preceded strong rallies. Bitcoin Is Stuck in a Narrow Trading Range Looking at the chart, Bitcoin has been moving sideways for over a month. The price is stuck between a clear resistance zone near $100,000 and strong support around $84,000. These two levels stand out clearly and serve as key decision points for the market. The $100,000 level is particularly important. Previously, this level served as the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s all-time high range, making it a zone where selling pressure could re-emerge. A clear breakout above this level could signal a recovery of strength.

On the other hand, the $74,500 level is an important monthly support. If this level is broken, some analysts believe Bitcoin could bottom out deeper near $40,000 in 2026. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $88,040, reflecting a slight increase over the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion.