2025 Gold Market Review: Opportunities and Rational Responses Driven by Resonance

In 2025, the global gold market has experienced a spectacular upward trend. London spot gold prices increased by over 60% throughout the year, with the all-time high being surpassed more than 50 times, reaching a peak of $4,421 per ounce. Meanwhile, the main contract price of Shanghai gold futures broke through the 1000 yuan/gram mark for the first time, becoming one of the most outstanding assets globally this year.

Behind this round of market rally is a resonance effect formed by multiple factors: ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties continue to boost safe-haven demand; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times this year, and the US dollar index fell about 9% throughout the year, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold; global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years. Under the trend of "de-dollarization," structural adjustments in official reserves constitute an important support for gold prices; investment demand and price momentum reinforce each other, with continuous inflows into gold ETFs and speculative funds, further deepening the bull market. Even under pressure from some exchanges adjusting risk control measures, gold prices have shown strong resilience, driving other precious metals like silver to strengthen simultaneously.

Looking ahead to 2026, the overall environment for the gold market remains favorable, with a high probability of the bull market continuing, but volatility is expected to rise significantly. Many institutions remain optimistic about the future, predicting that gold prices could reach the range of $4,900 to $5,055 per ounce by the end of the year, and in extreme cases, even challenge the high of $6,000.

The core supporting logic remains unchanged: the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is expected to continue, and the long-term weakening trend of the US dollar persists; structural demand such as central bank gold purchases is likely to continue, and global policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks will continue to stimulate safe-haven allocations; against the backdrop of evolving traditional asset allocation frameworks, the diversification and multi-faceted value of gold will be further highlighted. However, potential risks should also be alert to: if the global economic recovery exceeds expectations or the US dollar experiences a phased rebound, it could trigger a 5%-20% technical correction; year-end profit-taking pressure and policy adjustments may also intensify short-term market volatility.

The 2025 market confirms gold's value in complex environments. Facing 2026, investors need to adopt more rational strategies: institutional investors should closely monitor macro signals, flexibly adjust positions, and seize swing opportunities; ordinary investors should avoid blindly chasing highs and speculative mindsets, use leverage cautiously, and participate in the market with a long-term allocation approach.

In summary, the gold market closed 2025 with a strong performance. Supported by multiple factors, it still has upward potential in 2026. Although fluctuations are inevitable along the way, gold's safe-haven attributes and store-of-value functions will continue to be demonstrated, potentially bringing steady returns to rational investors and writing a new chapter in the bull market.