#数字资产动态追踪 The Fork in the Crypto Ecosystem: Is It a Tool for the US Dollar or a Truly Independent System?

This question has long puzzled market participants. The crypto space now faces a choice, and the answer will determine the trajectory of the next few years.

**Two Perspectives, Very Different**

Some believe that stablecoins are essentially a form of digitalization of the US dollar. In simple terms, they help expand the influence of the dollar in the digital age and compete for global transaction dominance. Under this view, the risk in the crypto market lies in potentially triggering liquidity issues in traditional finance, ultimately evolving into economic rivalry among major powers. $BTC becomes the testing ground for this logic.

On the other hand, large institutions like Galaxy and Coinbase hold a different view. They believe the market is moving toward genuine maturity — no longer just speculation, but with real applications, institutional funding, and projects capable of generating cash flow. In this context, stablecoins serve as payment infrastructure, with scale continuing to grow. Risks are more related to regulation and macro policies. The value of ecosystem tokens like $ETH and $BNB is also being re-priced.

**2026: Three Key Test Moments**

In the coming year, several major events will hit simultaneously. In Q1, the Federal Reserve’s policy moves and the EU’s DAC8 rules will test market tolerance. In Q2, the Federal Reserve chair will change, possibly bringing new monetary policy shifts. In Q3, the EU’s MiCA regulation will fully come into effect, clarifying the crypto regulatory framework and potentially triggering a wave of adjustments. By Q4, the US midterm elections, Mt.Gox’s large repayments, and the pricing pressure of Bitcoin’s 2028 halving will all impact the market, leaving little room for relief in sentiment and capital.

**Final Words**

In the short term, regulation and macro policies will dominate market volatility. But the long-term question is: what role will stablecoins ultimately play? This is closely tied to the future of the US dollar credit system. Therefore, investors must consider both lines of reasoning simultaneously, as each key moment’s market reaction will serve as a test.