#预测市场 Seeing Wosh's probability in the prediction market jump from 7% to 48%, my first reaction is to be cautious. What does this sharp short-term fluctuation indicate? It shows that the market is following the trend rather than pricing rationally.

I've suffered too many losses like this in the crypto space—watching a forecast data surge and then starting to believe it, only to be slapped in the face by reality. Prediction markets are essentially collective guesses of people, not ironclad laws. Wosh's probability surpassing Hasett is nothing more than Trump’s single statement plus institutional backing, followed by retail investors jumping on the bandwagon. It's no different from rushing into a meme coin community just because its popularity is rising.

What’s more concerning is the distortion of this information flow—initially, Hasett's probability was as high as 85%, now it has dropped to 39%, just because of the reason "being too close to the president" being questioned. In plain terms, prediction markets can also be manipulated by emotions and public opinion, just like any trading market.

On-chain investments are the same—don't be fooled by market hype and probability data. Those who truly last are the ones who can distinguish noise from signals. Whether Wosh ultimately becomes chairman doesn’t matter. What matters is whether you can stay clear-headed amid this wave of emotion, and not be scared or tempted by the numbers in the prediction market.