2026-01-01 12:24:58

The fourth quarter of 2025 is arguably the most "counterintuitive" period of this cycle.

Bitcoin performance was bleak. The entire Q4 saw a decline of -23.07%, far below the historical average return of 77.07% and also below the median of 47.73%. This is the second worst quarter in Bitcoin's history—only surpassed by Q4 2018's -42.16%.

Ethereum's situation was also tough. Q4 return was -28.28%, ranking as the fourth worst quarter in its history. By December, the decline narrowed to levels of BTC -2.97% and ETH -0.65%.

During the liquidity crunch at the end of the year, the market chose to "endure." This was not just a simple correction but a deep-seated shift in market sentiment. Against the backdrop of rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the tightness of capital and negative market sentiment compounded, making this quarter a critical test of investors' psychological resilience.

The movements of the whales during this phase are worth paying attention to—are they quietly accumulating at lows, or continuing to wait and see? This may determine the starting point of the next cycle.

BTC0.49%

ETH0.41%

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MeltdownSurvivalist

· 6h ago

Those who endure are warriors. Are the whales really bottoming out? --- Oh my, looking at this data is making my mindset collapse... But after such a sharp drop, I’m actually a bit hopeful. --- Wait, -23% is only the second worst? How did those people in 2018 survive? --- Liquidity crunch is like this, the real test is just beginning. --- If the whales start building positions here, then us retail investors might have a chance, haha. --- Basically, it’s about enduring the mentality—seeing who can hold on until next year. --- If this trend continues, is the bottom-fishing opportunity really here? Or should I keep cutting losses? --- The worst in Q1, and repeating in Q2—cycles really have no fixed pattern. --- Expectations of Fed rate cuts rising, yet it still drops? Am I understanding this wrong? --- This is called "going against human nature"... Human nature is to chase gains and sell at losses, but now it’s the other way around.

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MevSandwich

· 6h ago

It's finally over, now just waiting for the big whales to move. --- Q4 was so brutal, really tests the mentality... What are the giant whales actually doing? --- That was even worse in 2018, indicating Bitcoin will eventually rebound sooner or later. --- Liquidity is tight and sentiment is poor, the crappy market is truly terrible. --- People who accumulated at low levels should be smiling now. --- Let's wait and see how the Federal Reserve acts; the decision isn't in our hands. --- The word "endure" at the end of the year is really perfect; just endure and it's over.

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RektHunter

· 6h ago

Keep going, the whales are holding back their strength If the whales don't move, do retail investors still have to keep getting hammered? It’s not even this bad in 2018, did we really break the record? Wait, why did the rate cut expectation not have any effect again? Those who built positions at low levels must have a lot of money, I’m even tight on my meal money

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LiquidatedDreams

· 6h ago

Whales are bottom fishing, retail investors are cutting losses, a classic script. The pit is too deep; I really don't know when the bottom will come. It's another season testing mental strength... if we endure, we win? Is -23% considered bad? My account has already gone to zero. Waiting for the Federal Reserve to really cut rates, and the market instead crashes—laugh out loud. Liquidity tight? It just means no money, don't make it so professional. Just look at the whales' building positions to know the next move; retail investors, just wait to drink the soup. Talking about the second worst in history again... what about people in 2018 now?

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